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The PPP, the military or Imran Khan?
It seems to me Zardari’s traits of fighter, have dictated various institutional clashes dominating current PPP term.
The writer is a defence analyst who retired as an air vice-marshal in the Pakistan Air Force. He also served as Pakistan’s ambassador to Sri Lanka
The rise of Raja Pervaiz Ashraf as the country’s new prime minister in the twilight of the PPP’s current government brings forth the clamour for fresh elections and a return to the electorate. Elections are due in less than a year, but how the Zardari/Raja duo holds out against the multifarious pressures on it from the various external and internal challenges will be the key to whether the current PPP government plays out its entire innings or is declared hurt. Will it, or will the military take its place, or whether Imran Khan wins the next election, as the curtain draws down on the PPP government, remains a moot point. Here is some prognostication.
The current stint of the PPP has been plagued with self-induced fears; and some of these have actualised in typical self-fulfilling prophecies. I was, perhaps, the first ambassador to host this leadership for a Saarc summit in Colombo in 2008, just a few months after the PPP had been elected to office. I saw fear and apprehension writ large over the face of the leadership as they rather tentatively measured their initial steps into power. And without doubt, their fear centred on how the military might treat them; such has been the historical record of the mutual animosity.
Perhaps, going a bit beyond my mandate, I proposed a certain approach which could develop a healthier relationship between the two. There had already been that initial assault, though, of placing Inter-Services Intelligence under the ministry of interior and then its sudden reversal; this was, much early into their tenure, the betrayal of an uneasy relationship.
If indeed Benazir Bhutto had been at the helm and had been this nervy, it would have been understandable, but when the stables of the party had been stocked anew with newer ensigns and top leadership that was more or less news, signs of such uncertainty had to do with something other than a historical basis. It seems to me that President Asif Ali Zardari’s traits of a fighter against the various odds that had bedevilled his life, more or less, have dictated the various institutional clashes that have dominated the current term of the PPP. Mr Zardari perceived the military, and then the judiciary, as his most probable nemeses. Hence, the ISI misadventure; the purported memo to the Americans by then-ambassador to the US, Husain Haqqani; a continuous rendition of how the military just might unseat a democratic government while the signs of it were not even remote; and it’s now famed ‘bunkered’ mentality against some inevitable odds waiting to afflict it, have obsessed the PPP giving it a safety-first instinct taking away the initiative to work towards resolving the challenges which have only multiplied in the last four years. The same is the case with the way it has perceived the judiciary; whether it was the judgment on the National Reconciliation Ordinance or the Swiss money accounts, the reaction by the PPP has only been of predisposed defiance.
Yousaf Raza Gilani was sacrificed on the altar of these fears, and if there is time enough, so shall be Raja Pervaiz Ashraf. I wrote some time back that Mr Zardari’s instinct to perceive himself as the perpetual target had pushed him to establish concentric security circles around him, beginning with parliament, the prime minister and his close personal staff which would be the final offering before anyone can reach his person. Sadly, while it may be a saga of a person’s fight against his multifarious enemies using clever strategy, smart politics and expedient exploitation of a sense of loyalty among party-mates, what it has resulted in has been an abominable lack of governance, policy, vision and any kind of planning for the future. The track record of the current PPP government has shown that there never has been time for any of this, since most of the time its leadership seems to have been consumed by a continuous sense of a war against shadows, both past and perceived.
What of the title then? An aam admi that I am a client of once a month, is a great connoisseur of our politics. My background of the military and current occupation with the media makes for a deadly mix, and he partakes liberally of such opportunity. His wisdom defies his lack of a formal education and as much as anyone these days is stumped for answers to what any common man of Pakistan may ask of us, I, too, am mostly speechless when he rants and raves about how the elites have plundered his country and how they have singularly failed to do anything for the common man. He asks of me to convey to General Kayani that time may have come for him to hang his uniform if indeed there is nothing he can do or is willing to do about the current state of affairs. Some of his pearls of wisdom include asking me to convey the need for a policy to focus for the next 10 years only on education at the cost of everything else ensuring universal enrollment of all five-year-olds so that at least one generation of literates can be ensured which could then give us an educated and informed democracy. When I tell him there is no chance for a return of the military even if he loathes the possibility of the PPP winning yet another election, he wants to know if Imran could be the answer.
I wish I could offer him that assurance.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 28th, 2012.
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Reader Comments (31)
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Perhaps you could have suggested offering Malik Riaz the job since you are a fan eh?
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We can not term it the result of Zardari’s traits of a fighter. It is plain case of shameful defiance of the highest court of Pakistan in order to save his looted money. Mr. Zardari knows that he will not be able to save himself from conviction if the Swiss cases are reopened. Just to save himself he has put the entire system at stake. He has appointed Raja Sahib as PM where as Raja Sahib is not fit to hold even the office of Chairman District Council.
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Imran Khan is the perfect leader for Pakistan. Nations get the leader that its people can produce and deserve. Pakistan’s journey from Quaid e Azam to Imran Khan says it all.
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I think you have nailed the issue with PPP. I think the same will be the issue with PMLN (if they come to power) since its leadership has tried to establish itself as anti-establishment and is also insecure from the unexpected rise of PTI. I don’t see any new national party except PTI on the political horizon in the next 5-10 years that might be able to pull the nation together and also have the political clout to survive tough decisions. So, rather than wishing for an army of supermen, how about we make a rational but timely decision. Its about time we start developing a consensus on the least problematic political option.
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The author failed to mention the multiple assaults on democracy by the generals and judiciary in each of the four terms of PPP govt. From hanging the first elected PM to killing BB, Taseer and couple of hundred PPP workers in the two attempts on BB, not a single murderer has been put to death. In fact nobody is caught except the “hero” Qadri who volunteered his arrest. The de-legitimization of PPP majority by the PCO Judges is an open secret. In this atmosphere how could a govt function?
If we think this is a bad situation in the country, we haven’t seen nothing yet. It is the beginning of the end after the army was caught hosting OBL. Pakistan needs billions of $$ to survive economically and nobody is willing to bail them out. With the defense and debt servicing consuming more than half of the budget not much is left for education, power, water, healthcare and other basic needs of civilians. Pakistan had chosen to eat grass and make bombs. With the foreign aid drying up they have to put their money where their mouth is. The bad days are fast approaching no matter who is the ruler.
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Q. What is wrong with this article?
A. The elected government has to fight for power after elections. The prime minister is a pawn.
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You always write a thought provoking commentary sir, you will offer an aam admi this assurance one day :)
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You may not be aware but you are representing a mindset(Urban Central Punjab),who hated PPP,even in 1973, that hatred was passed on to the next generation.The awam, you are talking about, voted for PNA,then Zia,IJI,NS,MUSH,NS and are now with IK.They are not Awam ,but urban middle class,salaried/professional class.Army officers has some experience in dealing with human beings,while Air force people believe things they read and watch in media..Recommend
offcourse PTI
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Good thing about dictatorship is that at least it does not claim to be a democracy,so you can always fight for democracy.
In our current so called democracy one man in his stubbornness and fright of shadows is willing to endanger derailing the feeble democracy,yet claiming to champion the casue of it.
PPP lacks the ability to introspect,it’s always the army or the judiciary which prevents it from delivering.Socioeconomic uplift of masses is never the goal with this party rather leaning to the left politically and being anti rightwing is it’s priority.In a truly Machiavillian way vote bank is kept illiterate,superstitious and starved to keep the path to the corridors of power open.Crying wolf (Talibinization imminent) or playing victim vis-a-vis army/judiciary ,as opposed to performance of it’s government ,are it’s trump cards.
Politically leaning to the right or left I don’t care,I will vote for the party that makes socioeconomic betterment of people it’s top priority.
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Imran is not entity. He is trying to come on the back of turncoats and agencies and will miserly fail. Please do not waste space by giving him importance more than his weight.
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Let’s see what PEW survey released this month is saying for IK and PTI…:)
Imran is favorable to 70% masses and among youth (age 18-29) his ratings are 76%.
http://www.pewglobal.org/2012/06/27/chapter-5-institutions-and-leaders/
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@Dr. Akmal:
Any link to your claim that he is trying to come on the back of agencies??? :O
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Instead of parties or personalities emphasis could /should be on ethics and morality of everybody irrespective of his/her station in life.
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Your friend is spot on with the 10 year education focus suggestion …
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The writer needs to work on creativity; no new information or discussion domain in the article
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What is needed in Pakistan is an independent and honest setup for 9-12 months, that cleans the political scene from the corrupt elements and carries out the=is cleaning across all segments of society.
What people are not realising is the the economy of the country is in mess and massive intervention is needed
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Imran Khan first boycotted the elections which were held after a long military rule, and then consistently tried to derail the government through street and press agitation. I would’t call it democratic behavior.
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Stop breathing down on the elected governments and you will not see ‘self-induced fears.’
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Point much appreciated “When I tell him there is no chance for a return of the military…”.
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i firmly believe imran khan is going o sweep the elections. out of every 10 people 8 people are voting for imran khan. Hence, use ur head, do the maths.
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@saira:
Urbanites do not elect governments. The poor and rural have the numbers. That is why the urban/well off/ internet generation collectively thinks they are in the know of peoples choices.
Imran has good intent, is honest. But does he have the administrative skill to run a country?
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Once a fauji, always a fauji. ‘Analyst’!?
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@Dr. Akmal:
Who do you think be the best person to rule this country. Imran Khan is the only choice left man becouse the problem with Zardari is that he is corrupt and looter. If we give another chance to him, he will sure sell the whole nation. Problem with Nawaz Sharif is that he is dump head and insane. If we given another chance to him then God know what will happen to this country.
By the way Nawaz Sharif is the legacy of Zia ul Haq who is the man responsible for the disaster of Pakistan.
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@Mirza:
I always agree with you, however I would like to read your take on IK. I have this nagging feeling that he’s been brought into current scenario to serve that old albiet obsolete guard, that “deep state”. These undemocratic forces have always hated PPP for it’s straight forward and moderate profile. They hated it in 73 and they still hate it with the same ferocity. I just hope that people of Pakistan are able to see the real face of IK soon and wake up before it’s too late. It is very easy, anybody who shows any sympathy with TTP, is a traitor no matter what.
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Imran is the ONLY answer.
Imran is our next PM INSHALLAH!
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@Mirza:
How true your comments are. One needs to be true and honest to understand realities of the ground and unfortunately as a nation we lack such traits.
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the ppp government has been under siege since taking over. The generals and their deep state has been trying to create such hurdles that it cannot function properly. If that is not true what were the Kerry-Lugar fiasco, the Raymond Davis affair and many more such things nt to speak of the latest MEMOGAte if not to keep this government on the run.
President Zardari is victim of such people since he married BB. Since they could not stick anything on her so they heaped all dirt on the President. The Deep state, the media, the Judiciary and the big business are all in it. It is the genius of President Zardari and the PPP that they have so far thwarted all efforts to dislodge it. Even at this belated moment efforts are on to send this dispensation packing becaause if PPP complets her tenure then the next government will be much more stronger wether formed by Mian Sahib or that KAPTANRecommend
1, it is good that you have acknowledged Zardari as a fighter
2 The courts have thousands of cases of aam admi waiting for years pending and they spend their time on witchhunt of the PPP
The military is responsible for ruling the country for 35 years and add the terms of Ayub from 53 onwards . Therefore they are more responsible for ruining the country
4 we are today standing in the top list of counries in the failed state yet have the 5th biggest army in the world
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Yes Imran Khan is the answer…….Al we need is a an efficient and honest government whose priorities are right. The problem with the present govt. is that even if they have experts on theor disposal , these eperts will only fill the stomach of files and main policies will be run by likes of Dr. Asim, Adnan Khwaja kith and kins of the PM, the CM and so on and so forth.Recommend
Doesn\t matter which party comes to power, as long as the military is calling the key shots – as it has been since 1958 – the decline of Pakistan will continue unabated.
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