Diplomatic space for any state lies between the ‘maximising advantage’ and ‘minimising damage’ ends of the spectrum. Working between the two ends, diplomats expend diplomatic capital and find an agreeable mean. At times, this space is squeezed because of ill-considered policies, frittered away with inept diplomacy, or lost to a fragmented domestic front. For a combination of these and many more reasons, Pakistan vis-a-vis the US, now sits at the weaker ‘minimising damage’ end having lost most of its diplomatic space. The focus must now lie on saving ourselves from delusionary gains of maximalist strategies.
The only way out of a cul-de-sac is to retrace your steps. On a political front, this invariably means spending and losing some political capital. Both Pakistan and the US are in a cul-de-sac; America with some form and shape of an apology and Pakistan climbing down the high horse of ‘an unqualified apology’, ‘only from the highest quarters’. We missed the boat; we may have to take whatever may now be available to ferry us out.
An ‘apology’ satisfies the Pakistani sensibility of ghairat or hameeat; two primal notions. Ghairat or honour is a manifestation of ‘capacity’, which measures your ability to give meaning to ghairat in tangible ways. A nation that sits at the bottom of the pile in terms of human indices and other developmental matrix, has its industry lost to neighbouring regions, goes without electricity for 20 hours in a twenty-four-hour cycle, and has a man convicted of contempt by the Supreme Court leading it, has little to be ghairatmand about. We already have a plan to seek IMF facilitation of around $5.3 billion to make up for the rapidly rising fiscal deficit after the almost eight billion that we acquired from them in the last four years. We are dependent, not independent. An ‘apology’ thus can only satisfy a pretension without adding any real meaning to national purpose.
What else does an apology bring us — humbling America into giving one? Whose side are we on? For ten years, we fought alongside the Americans and enabled them to transport their supplies through our territory. Now when it is time for them to turn down the war and begin to withdraw, we have chosen to close their routes out of Afghanistan. We must let them leave Afghanistan so that the war may end. Their ability to bring stability and seek continuity of the existing order will improve if we let them have their supplies; that will also help tone down the war. Without peace the alternative will be mayhem with its own attendant fallout for Pakistan.
Here are three options to choose from to disentangle the prevailing cobweb: Agree on a commonly evolved ‘apology’ acceptable to the Americans; they may not be able to do more on this because of the evolved political environment in both countries since Salala. Simultaneously, announce opening of the supply routes; if it comes with an agreed levy, so much the better. Don’t tie in the drones unnecessarily. A workaround on the drones should help to keep face before a hyped domestic sensitivity. Accept going to Chicago when offered and propose all efforts to bring the Afghan groups to the negotiating table, with or without Karzai. Don’t bind yourself to the Afghan-led, Afghan-owned, nonsense. After having so stated, work assiduously to put it to effect. Missing Bonn was a mistake. The world moved on. Without Pakistan at Chicago, the world will still move on. Be positively engaged with the world; estrangement doesn’t help. Ghairat will have to take a back seat for now.
Refuse to open the routes till the apology is delivered from the highest quarters and the drones don’t stop. As a consequence, become irrelevant to Afghanistan’s endgame; unable to stop the drones, take them on and widen the circle of combat to now Pakistani skies and targets. Not a good place to be, you will agree. We can’t take a war with a superpower on the back of an almost bankrupt economy — one would be advised even otherwise. Also, the CIA and the Pentagon get a reason to stay on longer and continue their ‘great games’.
Do neither. Just let the situation drift, the classical ineptitude option. Whatever then entails, deal with it. Unfortunately, we may then be enveloped by events that will always remain beyond our control and always in someone else’s control. A nation in a drift, floating waveringly on a wisp unable to determine its destiny.
Need I say which option to take?
Published in The Express Tribune, May 15th, 2012.
COMMENTS (20)
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This piece sounds like a Psychologist giving a suicidal maniac advice. If you put it bluntly the message wont be delivered, so the Doctor is trying to put a sound argument. But, like the suicidal maniac, Pakistan is hardly listening. Its got its own suicidal theories and justifications.
Who will win? Let us wait and watch.
Dear AVM Chaudary,
So how exactly is the US embassy's media wing compensating for the Ghairat that you've donated in their service?
Regards,
Not for sale
Excellent analysis! Finally intellectuals in pakistan are understanding that the country has to STOP double dealing the world. Also, poor countries, at the bottom of the human indices, have just no strength to deal with the world. Finally pakistan is realising that their current fate is completely the result of a flawed 65 year old Kashmir and India policy. It has ensured that pakistan spends all its money and energy on defence( based on borrowed money), and not on being respected in the world for something( anything). That policy was based on sponsoring terror in the world, and now once that has been exposed to world, its like a respectable man being revealed as a criminal and a thief. US has no reason to apologise for the accidental death of 24 soldiers, when it has itself lost a few thousands of its own soldiers in Afganistan, fighting islamic militancy and terorism. US is doing pakistan a favour by now helping fight pakistan based jihadis, who are now threatening to gobble up pakistan itself. The DPC and Hafeez are seemingly going underground.. sign of the times to come. False pride is no "honour" its a delusional curse.
@AFPAK: 180 degrees IS a U-turn! Maybe it is a 360?
@AFPAK: 180 degrees and a U-turn are the same thing. I give you advance permission to hit me for splitting hairs. I don't have the will power to stop myself.
While exiting from Lahore Railway Station, I once heard a beggar comment to a constable who was trying to chase him away -
" Jeb mein paisa bilkul nahin; lekin hum kissi se kam nahin"
Sums up our situation, I think
Few months back i was shocked to see army chief statement terming huge loans as the cause of compromises. To our respected army chief and the writer, a retired air vice marshal, Sir, we have huge loans because we equipped you to defend us. We are “A nation that sits at the bottom of the pile in terms of human indices and other developmental matrix” because you (as military rulers) diverted our education budget to military because of the atmosphere created by you. Ghairat is not a matter of capacity, it’s a function of farsightedness. Wasn’t someone sitting is DCC thought about repercussions of the bloackade? Nobody measured which of our “brother” country will pressurize is to open the route? I would suggest Sir, you please wrap up your golf courses and focus more on chess. Will give a much needed farsightedness.
Excellent Analysis, 6 Months too late! ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
i dont know what was the need of this article once the americans said that they are not going to make any apology the matter ended there now they are not going to listen to your "precious" advice now after that pakistan either cooperates with the americans or they dont not other way. although life is not going to be easy for the government following either way. now that is a cul d sac.
Take Option 2-best for pakistan
@s shah:
It is a basically a U turn; 180 degree turn was taken in November 2011.
Bush Jr. once declared "you are either with us or with terrorists"
Pakistan by default was not with USA by choosing to shelter, protect and arm the Taliban and like-minded anti-USA groups such as Haqqanis, Gul Bahadur and Omar.
It was a giant double game from the day Pakistan airlifted Taliban and its other foot soldiers from Kundooz Afghanistan in September 2001.
What Pakistan has been doing is pulling wool not just over the EYES of the entire world but over the entire BODY of the world.
180 degree turn by the establishment!
Mr. SC how difficult it is to make 180 degree turn? How wise it is to do after loosing so much? please can you dwell?
Where do you get your information about money from the IMF,Sir?
To make up for the "rising fiscal deficit"?
The IMF does not give money for any rising fiscal decfit. It gives money for the balance of payments.
Very Nice! "Ghairat or honour is a manifestation of ‘capacity’, which measures your ability to give meaning to ghairat in tangible ways."
Neither the drone visit nor Salala apology has kept US from doing what she has been doing in Afghansitan. Translation: PAK is irrelevant for Afghanistan end game.
There won't be any invitation to next week NATO summit in Chicago. Reason: if NATO offers an invitation, PAK will certainly reject it. Bonn is a good lesson. "Ignore PAK" is the decision already made since May 2 and all the statements from diplomatic front and various bills on PAK in congress are samples of ignoring PAK cries.
Supply route will be open but this time there won't be any serious movement as US is winding down her operation. The movement of supplies will be discussed between Afghanistan and PAK and PAK is obligated to AFG under existing treaty. There is obsoletely no reason or hurry for the US to leave Afghanistan under existing US-Afghanistan agreement.
Unless PAK gives mullah omar's and Haqqani's head in a golden platter with frankincense and Mir nothing is going to change in US and PAK relationship.
I think our planners will go for third option, as they have done in almost all cases in past, and then pay likes of zaid and gul to throw blueberry theories on RAW, CIA conspiracy. Based on the history and our achievements, I think we are only capable of doing this. Other options need guts, and we have long lost it.
What option will be exercised has been obvious to all external observers at least since Marc Grossman made his stand clear about no unconditional apology and no cessation of drones.
What is unclear is how this option will be sold to the Pakistan public which was deliberately riled up by the establishment. Would also be interesting to see how people feel when DPC, JuD, PTI offer nothing more than a token statement opposing the reopening of routes.
The problem with our retired generals is when they are in service and their period of service happens to be in marshal law, they forget all the norms of diplomacy, the vulnerability of our economy, the internal dangers we r faced with and many other things which they start projecting as a " true patriot " after the retirement..i don't remember any incident of high character and adherence with consitution that any general,admiral,air marshal resigned in protest once marshal law is enforced and constitution is held in abeyance..regarding Mr Shehzad Chaudhary whom i have high regards for, as he says "a nation that sits at the bottom of the pile in terms of human indices and other developmental matrix, has its industry lost to neighbouring regions, goes without electricity for 20 hours in a twenty-four-hour cycle, and has a man convicted of contempt by the Supreme Court leading it, has little to be ghairatmand about" . This is absolutely true,but these should be thought abt before taking any fateful decision.Unfortunately,there are still some GHAIRATMAND people in Pakistan who look towards their leaders and policy makers to salvage their self-respect..But the policymakers who are more ghairatmand than a common people forget this word and by retracting their decision,next day they are seen sitting with those against whom they took ghairatmand decision..Kabay kis mui sai jao k Ghalib, sharam tum ko magar ati nahi.