Now that the US is officially and formally talking with the Taliban, including initiating swap arrangements for some of the most notorious prisoners from the Guantanamo Bay, the power matrix is poised for a shift in the coming months. Pakistan is geared towards taking a key position and could act as the driving force in ensuring a lasting peace process after the US departs from Afghanistan.
Consequently, the unending tirade against Pakistan and its premier agencies, which consists of accusations of providing safe sanctuaries to the same Taliban, would amount to a nullity now that the Taliban are engaging in talks with the mightiest superpower of the world. Thus, Pakistan would now emerge cleansed of the blame of colluding with the Taliban, despite the country being the most battered but also the most resilient victim in this most indeterminate of wars.
These historic talks will herald a watershed moment for the powers that have stuck to their ideological positions like a rock, for well over a decade. In the process, thousands of innocent lives were lost in Pakistan, unfairly bearing the brunt of this borderless war. Pakistan’s battered economy suffered a loss of about $70 billion, not to mention the human and psychological cost that its people have had to pay. The government sacrificed countless leaders; the Pakistan Peoples Party lost its brightest shining light, Benazir Bhutto, rendering the president of Pakistan as the biggest political victim of terrorism.
As the stakeholders tread cautiously towards the delicate process of engagement, the community of nations has to recognise, that for any peace process to be sustainable and lasting and for it to bring meaningful prosperity in the lives of the people living across the border, Pakistan has to be given the driving seat. Sans Pakistan, the reality would dawn painfully upon the world that no peace process would deliver the desired results.
Talking in geopolitical terms, the way famed English geographer Halford Mackinder saw the world, as presented to the Royal Geographical Society in 1904, seems surreal today as distances over land are no longer an impediment, and ruling the Euro-Asian-African heartland of yore is not more than a pipe dream for many powers of the world in today’s day and age. But yet another heartland may have emerged, not as vast as the one suggested by Mackinder, but just as critical to the world of geopolitics.
Mackinder’s land theory may have been laid to rest for now, but if regional powers in Asia are able to play it wisely they might find themselves the heartland of a very important nature. Pakistan may be at the centre of this most volatile, yet crucial heartland that ensures the security of the region and the world at large. This new heartland is the centre stage of world politics. How the curtain will rise and fall here, will ensure the political futures of the many of the world’s most important personalities. Its geographically insurmountable barriers and the lofty Hindu Kush contain the seeds for the most important power games of the world.
Pakistan finds itself as the nucleus of this power-driven, intricate war theatre and may write history as the most resilient phoenix to have risen from the ashes.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 1st, 2012.
COMMENTS (53)
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@jagjit sidhoo
My friend @Kaalchakra is not sarcastic.He is dead serious and brings great wisdom into the debate. Do not belittle his contributions by painting him as a kind of court jester
@kaalchakra: "Pakistan is innocent, and it is only a matter of time before Pakistan’s untiring efforts toward peace are recognized by all"
You should be a comedian cause the strategic assets only want peace and are playing with plastic guns. Please just get real and accept that Pakistan will continue to use its strategic assets to get a supposedly friendly regime in Afghanistan that will destroy the fabric of both Pakistani and Afghan society. At the same time it will try to milk the US for as much money as it can by making as many false promises as it can. Nothing will change as the establishment will continue to do this and keep on lying to its people who will blindly follow and blame the rest of the world for its problems.
@gp65: oh, come on! do you really think anyone can 'push' the only super power on earth to do this or that act? they may be pushed by their own reasons one of them is that the war was not expected to stretch this far and the resulting body bags. another is, as a erstwhile soviet union general warned not to embark on a lost war while US was ready to attack Afghanistan, that its on the brink losing it and has to blame someone for face saving. before it was OBL and al-quaeda now its haqqanis! is there any comparison between the two?
This is a terrible piece. The government suffers from a serious lack of talent.
@ayesha_khan: The earlier we all realize that the central role has to be of the Afghan people the better for all of us.
Please read this http://tribune.com.pk/story/372940/us-goal-in-afghanistan-now-within-reach-obama/ and tell me if you think the world - especially the US still believes that Pakistan has a central role.
@BlackJack: Great reasoning the ripple effect of Kashmiri aspirations needs also to be worked out because we have a large Kashmiri community in Pakistan which is responsive to Indian army excesses in Indian occupied Kashmir.
@Kaalchakra: I see the sarcasm , well said.
Under normal circumstances Pakistan should be the critical player in facilitating peace and helping to organize a post NATO Afghanistan --- but to be blunt no one trust you - not NATO, USA, Afghanistan, India, Iran or even the Taliban. Your history of using Afghanistan as a tool to further your strategic objectives combined with being caught playing both sides of the fence too often has removed you from a meaningful role.
@BlackJack:
Good argument and well stated.
On Sri Lanka all India can do is to REQUEST the SL government to take the Tamil grievances into account in formulating SL internal policies. It can also point out to SL that India has been affected by the inflow of Tamil refugees from SL. Anything more would be interference in the affairs of a sovereign country. Also, in order to persuade a country needs to take pains to develop a cordial relationship first. We do seem to agree on these points.
The Pakistan case is not comparable to SL, since the Pashtoons have been the politically dominant section in Afghanistan for decades. They have been the oppressors of other nationalities in Afghanistan and not the other way about. In fact, the Afghan refugee "problem" was the creation of the Pakistani establishment due to its creation and support of the Taliban. It was also a business transaction in that the Pak establishment got paid over $3B to take care of the refugees. Only very little of this money was actually spent on the refugees, the rest was swallowed by the military establishment.
@Imran Ahsan Mirza:
People have to come out of their shell before governement will. Otherwise politicians will pander for votes with whatever gets them the vote.
Democracy, and fairness is created and administered by people, not the government. Government gives whatever people allows it to get away with.
antanu g
Brother, these are all hateful people, who are blaming Pakistan for no reason. But you and I know, Pakistan is innocent, and it is only a matter of time before Pakistan's untiring efforts toward peace are recognized by all.
Almost everything of significance that could be said on this article has been offered in the 40 comments. It is sad to see that a government insider has been able to convince herself about the justice and righteousness of the recommendations that the author is making in her article. If past experience is any guide, then Pakistan’s concerns shall derive directly from the events of 1991-1996 when the Afghan Taliban were making a bid for power in Afghanistan. Ms Palwasha Khan wants us to believe that if there is to be stability and peace in Afghanistan, then the powers that be need to put Pakistan in the driving seat. In my view, if this were done, then Pakistan will ensure that Afghanistan does not stabilize as a state and remains in a state of eternal dependence on Pakistan. Nothing that Pakistan can say or do now shall absolve Pakistan of the accusation that for something like 30 years Pakistan has been using terror as an instrument of its policy, whatever that policy was. No one in the wide world is going to grant that giving a decisive say to Pakistan in the post-withdrawal arrangement in Afghanistan shall ensure peace in the region. The result, in my view, shall be just the opposite. Sooner or later the US will have to renew the war in Afghanistan. V. C. Bhutani, Delhi, India, 1 May 2012, 1925 IST
"strong textto bring meaningful prosperity in the lives of the people living across the border, Pakistan has to be given the driving seat” "ACROSS THE BORDER" here means Afghanistan. Great argument. To have peace in Afghanistan the "Pakistan has to be given the driving seat" It is this mind set that has put entire region on fire. The WORLD IS CONVINCED THAT PAKISTAN CAN PLAY THE GREATEST KEY ROLE BY PERMITTING OTHERS TO BE IN THE DRIVING SEAT OF THEIR OWN COUNTRY. When this fever of strategic depth will be cured????
We tend to believe in all sorts of conspiracy theories but forget this fact that whatever we say, we gave opportunity to the enemies of US to use our land and attack them. This alone is enough reason to attack back and destroy them here within our lands. Additionally US has successfully destablised the region to its long term security advantage. Pakistan is also very much on the brink of anarchy. The US has succeeded in this process and they see no evil by continuing to destablise this region further in the name of freedom and liberty for the people. China and Russia are resisting this effort but are very much reluctant to act. The whole middle east is made unstable in the name of meaningless revolutions. No doubt liberties and freedoms are good for mankind, but I doubt all these revolutions will bring about any liberal governments in Arabs countries in this century. Pakistan will continue to suffer unless its government come out of its shell and realise its geopolitical status for long term betterment for the country rather short term aid.
Why people write difficult English? Cant' they make it easier for people like me to understand what they want to say!. At least, I cannot afford time to read an article as I am studying something to get ready to appear in a exam.
Leisure time reading should have soothing effect instead of juggling with meanings of the words in the context of the sentance and article.
A Peshawary
Its sad that most of the commentators are piqued by any reference to peace stability and growth talks about pakistan. Its a shame how immature we have become in our bias towards a country.Almost all would like to see the pakistan besieged in today's status rather than moving ahead.
@Michael Robbins: so is the chins and india...third world counytries..
@Babloo: your point is irrational...one felony can not make another right. truth is US is talking to terrorists and thats all.
Self-trumpeting of self-importance is a sure sign of sinking self-worth!
$70 billion?? Yeah, right. The Americans were the ones who were conned. The Pakistanis were double and sometimes triple billing the Americans for expenses until recently. It would be fair to say that the Americans lost $70 billion to Pakistan.
@Rationalist: Fair point - allow me to explain. I think the closest parallel to this would be Sri Lanka, where India has a vested interest in seeing a stable neigbor which accomodates the demands of Sri Lankan Tamils within its democratic framework. This is because oppression of Sri Lankan Tamils has a ripple effect on Indian Tamils and we do not want instability or another refugee influx - not because we have any right to intervene or to define the nature of the outcome (we made mistakes on this front 25 years back and have had a major re-think since then). The Sri Lankan govt respects our nuanced response and accepts our concerns as genuine. Similarly Pakistan, which has more Pashtuns than Afghanistan (30% of them refugees) would also be an 'affected' party in the outcome of the current process and hence is a stakeholder. However, it seeks to be the sole arbitrator of Afghanistan's future, which is unacceptable.
Very good article, Ms Khan. One day the world will realize the gargantuan contributions Pakistan has made to bringing peace, prosperity, and amity in its neighborhood and beyond. Please keep educating the doubters.
All Pak has to to maintain peace in the region is this: just mind its affairs within the country.
"As the stakeholders tread cautiously towards the delicate process of engagement, the community of nations has to recognise, that for any peace process to be sustainable and lasting and for it to bring meaningful prosperity in the lives of the people living across the border, Pakistan has to be given the driving seat" Still believe in the concept of STRATEGIC DEPTH , when in trouble more of the same is usually the worst option.
Ya, in modern day knowledge based economies, whoever captures the great universities of Afghanistan will rule the world.
Your unrealistic and exaggerated belief that you're extremely important and not being shy about announcing it to the Afghans who already don't like you because of you having such a mindset towards them and their country has only given people incentive to think of ways which don't have to involve Pakistan. Not suck up and bend.
The author has indulged in a grandoise exercise by cheery picking her facts and interpreting them in a manner that absolves the State and its people of all responsibility for the dire state the country finds itself in. Passing the buck in this game of musical chairs seems the easiest solution for arm chair analysts.
US is talking to Taliban without Pakistan. Pakistan is not invited. Why do you think you are still important?
Pakistan’s battered economy suffered a loss of about $70 billion,
you must be joking. Pakistan was boosted by American generosity for the last 30 years. Also right from the time it was created.
Pakistanis are good at exagerating. They claim they are suffering on one hand. On the other hand they claim they are the best performing economy in the world.
@BlackJack:
Right on! Just one point on what you said here:
"Instead of trying to find a solution to increase Pashtun representation within the existing framework, you have used your proxies like the Haqqanis to scupper the process through violent means – "
Why should it be Pakistan's right to increase Pashtun representation in Afghanistan, a sovereign nation? If one accepts this right of Pakistan, then using the same logic why shouldn't India demand equal representation in Pakistan for Shias, Ahmedis, Hindus, Muhajirs, Christians and Sikhs? Or why couldn't Afghanistan demand equal representation for Hazaras in Pakistan?
Which world do you live in lady?
Whatever Ms. Pasha says, Pakistan is not an important entity in the scheme of things in the international arena. Pakistan is just a Third World country with a couple of hundred nukes. All those nukes did not prevent the Abbottabad raid almost a year ago, an event that completely humiliated the military, political establishment, and the people in Pakistan.
The only source of importance, albeit concern, is that Pakistan is the crucible of terrorism. Training camps for terrorists abound in that country, which forces NATO to employ drone strikes.
Drone strikes would not be necessary if the Pakistan military takes out the terrorist camps, which they are not willing to do so due to political reasons.
"Pakistan would now emerge cleansed of the blame of colluding with the Taliban"
"cleansed" made me smile. Actions of governments are recorded in history and can never be cleansed. For example, no one is going to forget that Osama was found in abbotabad. Pakistan can only be cleansed if the world has a memory lapse. That's unlikely to happen.
But what Pakistan can do is turn over a new leaf and start treating afghanistan as a neighboring independent country and not as an extension of Pakistan which can be ruled through a proxy.
If North Korea were in charge of the Nobel, Pakistan would easily win itself a Peace prize. Unfortunately, the rest of the world does not appreciate Pakistan quite as much.
We need to stop this nonsense: Pakistan is not a victim of the war on terror. If a man trying to throw acid on a woman gets splattered by some of the acid he threw -- that still makes him the criminal, not the victim. Afghanistan is the real victim here.
Here is a geopolitical question for you. When is your boss permanently geo-financillly moving to his real home Dubai. While he is at it ask him to take along the Sharrif guy for company in old age. Then, this battered land can perhaps breathe a collective sigh of relief! For shame PPP pithoo.
Sorry the $70 billion number has no credibility outside Pakistan. It is the TTP insurgency which has nothing to do with war on terror plus other radicalization due to deliberate policy of jihad which has led to collapse of FDI to Pakistan. Pakistan is trying to iply that these opportunity costs are due to war on terror. No one is buying it. It is pretty obvious that the army wants the supply routes to be reopened and so does the government. If participating in the WoT was such a loss-making proposition, why is anyone even trying to put conditions for opening supply routes? Just keep them closed.
@Author: "Consequently, the unending tirade against Pakistan and its premier agencies, which consists of accusations of providing safe sanctuaries to the same Taliban, would amount to a nullity now that the Taliban are engaging in talks with the mightiest superpower of the world. "
Disagree with your assessment. US has been pushed in this situation of having to negotiate with Afghan Taliban and Haqqanis because Pakistan provided them safe haven from where they could attack NATO forces. Also it is a very recent phenomenon that Pak army accepts that they will not take action against Haqqanis and Afghan Taliban. For yeartogether, inlcuding all years under Musharraf, Pakistan pretended to be taking action against Afghan Taliban and Haqqanis as part of war on terror and in return was handsomely compensated.
Our virtual guests from across the border making a rhetoric curry and a spicy mumbo jumbo out of this - for a change - not anti (don't dare to say pro) Pakistan writing piece is totally unexpected, I must admit.
Coming to the jingoistic scene itself, I do believe that Pakistan has its - important - say on this new "Great game", an ongoing tragic play which, since timidity more than one century, has thrown hungry passions - and generally gloomy weapons - of imperialistic gamblers in Central Asia, especially in Pakistan's own neighbour, Afghanistan. Now, the USA, theoretically an ally of Pakistan, is the main actor and we, as a responsible nation of the wider world community, must expose an array of our most subtle geo-strategic plans to not only do a favour to our own nationalist interests, but also not diplomatically hurt our ally while they're trying to bring the curtains down - we must make their talks with the Talibans easier through ideological consensus, enable a process of civil integration of these same Talibans in both countries (they didn't plan to fight all their life, I guess), have a more holistic framework with socio-economic, cultural, ... development provided to the country as much as we can and then let a strongly democratic and democratically strong Afghanistan mind its own business, and Pakistan its own (have sane diplomatic links which fall under a legal set, for once.)
We can use our own Pakhtoons to build this momentum of structural help from Pakistan's side, Afghanistan remains the most important country for not only our safety, but the whole Central Asia's and, implicitly, the world, given the calibre of the States involved.
Copernicus was wrong. World does not revolve around the sun. It revolves around Pakistan.
Pakistan is the key for world peace. All she has to do is to change policy on non-state actors and President and Kayani can win a noble prize for peace. As far as talking to Taliban is very simple. It is a policy of divide and rule. This is bound to split the fighter group. Those who want peace and negotiate will be negotiated with. Those who want to use a sword will be evaporated with the drone. In the end Pakistan will come out looser as it has lost the credibility in the global village. Pakistan is at the same stage where Col Gaddafi was around Pan Am attack.
"Pakistan finds itself as the nucleus of this power-driven, intricate war theatre and may write history as the most resilient phoenix to have risen from the ashes".
I would say that Pakistan is the most resilient raven after eating much crow.
Errr, this seems a couple of months out of date.
Engaging Taliban in talks by USA does not 1 bit negate US accusation of Pakistan colluding with Taliban. When US negotiates , it negotiates as an adversary. When Pakistan negotiates, it negotiates as an ally. The world knows the difference.
when world need help against Talibans then pakistan and its agencies are very nice and when there job is done then pakistan and isi are bad actors what a world
"Pakistan’s battered economy suffered a loss of about $70 billion" I would like receive receipt for this.Simply don't exaggerate the losses by playing the victim card. After all terror is instrument of state policy Pakistani leaders have used to fulfill their agenda. Pakistan as a country has lost its relevance in the international arena. Yes China is a nice dear friend of Pakistan,but have they ever been generous in giving aid even though they have $3 trillion reserves? You are simply sucking up to them because you have common enemy India, a country which you would like to wipe out was generous enough to give $25 million through UN which you were ashamed to take directly.
No one has a "key" role. Nor is anyone "indispensable"! World will not stop rotating on its axis if Pakistan opts itself out by engaging in irrational and dishonorable acts! We can manage!