The rising tide: An emerging water crisis - the next big threat to Pakistan

Since the floods, most of our populace is slowly being pushed into poverty.

KARACHI:

Water dominates world economics as a silently rising threat to global stability; in the corridors of power, some fear that the next big war will be fought over scarce water resources.

Water and food security have recently been critical themes at the United Nations. The watchdog records it as one of the most dangerous rising threats to the modern world. To put things in perspective, consider that over 70% of planet Earth is covered by water, less than half of which is fit for human consumption. Over 7 billion people today need food and water to live and survive. Another 2 billion will be added to that number by 2050. Estimates say that human beings can survive a month without food, but not more than 15 days without water. As the history of human conflict goes, a dispute over a scarce resource is bound to lead to military confrontations at some point in time.

In a letter addressed to the Government of Pakistan, the former chairman of the Indus River System Authority stated that “Pakistan is dangerously exposed to devastating floods and crippling load shedding at any time in the future, for no new dams have been built for the last 47 years. The existing reservoirs have silted by 6.5 MAF due to salting. There is lack of water management and the planners of storage dams have ignored their capacity inflow ratio. Saline lands have been put under ill-conceived salinity control and reclamation projects and national drainage programmes, which have later failed and subsequently abandoned. The irrigation system lacks proper drainage, and there is no way to evacuate injurious salts.”

In Pakistan, the depletion of water resources is reaching critical levels. In 2010, most of our water facilities were destroyed in the floods, followed by more devastation in 2011. Since then, our provinces have suffered significant setbacks, pushing a vast chunk of our population to worrisome levels of poverty. In Sindh alone, over 35 million people grapple with water and food insecurity, as the floods wiped out the entire water and sanitation infrastructure and housing facilities in the affected areas of the province.

Pakistan needs to invest in over 22-25 million acre feet (MAF) of water storage, against the 38 MAF of storage capacity already acquired by India. India has silently built over 200 dams, 32 of which are large enough to functionally cease the inflow of up to 38 MAF of water to Pakistan at will. This can practically destroy our crops during the Rabi season. Foreign media reports have also indicated that India has raised the stakes even higher for Pakistan: it plans to construct 12 new dams across the Kabul River – pushing the two countries ever closer to a water-war.

For starters, we need to revamp our 165-year-old canal irrigation system through integrated water management. The aim should be to save the 50MAF of water being wasted annually. We must also ensure that we build surface and sub-surface tile drainage to control salinity and remove dangerous salts out of the water. A recent study by the World Bank has pointed to the Skardu valley as the source of silt in our river systems: if a dam is built there, we can not only deal with this menace, but can also store up to 35MAF of water. This can additionally fetch us over 10,000 megawatts of hydropower. All politicking over building the Kalabagh and Akhori dams must also be silenced, as stalling the initiative has crippled the economy for over three decades now.

We have no dam sites on the Chenab, Jhelum or Kabul rivers; an unacceptable failure that will lead us to famine and starvation. The government has to wake up to India’s silent aggression and start getting dams on these rivers operational before the MFN status is ratified for India. Furthermore, the water treaty has to be endorsed in full spirit, with our interests paramount over theirs.

Sun Tzu tells us in the Art of War that “real battles are won without being fought”. The water war looming over our heads needs to be won for the future of our generations. For this, we need smart, dedicated individuals to come forward and work as one team. We need the media, civil bureaucracy, parliament and military united on all fronts. This should be the foremost priority of Pakistan as a nation, and Pakistanis as a people if we are to survive.

The writer comments on international relations and foreign policy.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 9^th, 2012.