‘Republicans may talk of containing Pakistan, but if in office national interest will prevail’

Pakistan-US ties may seem like a bad marriage but there will be no divorce, says ex-diplomat.

KARACHI: There has been a change in the Republican mindset towards Pakistan, but if former US ambassador Dennis Kux is to be believed, Pakistan may not have to worry too much. 

“There has been talk among Republicans to ‘contain Pakistan’,” he said at a discussion on Monday. “Many no longer see it [Pakistan] as part of the solution but the problem.” But when questioned later on whether the next American administration would change its approach towards bilateral ties, Kux tempered his response by saying, “Politicians say a great deal of things prior to being elected but once in office the national interest remains the same. Republicans will end up toeing the same line.”

Kux is in Karachi and he spoke to journalists at a discussion on foreign policy titled ‘US-Pakistan relations: Challenges and Opportunities’ at a hotel. The former diplomat is more than familiar with the vagaries of regional politics and how it is pegged to American interests. He served two terms in Pakistan from 1957 to 1959 and from 1969 to 1971, both of which he referred to as ‘crucial times’ in the country’s history.

In his assessment, Pakistan’s relations with the United States are much like a roller coaster ride with the ups and downs, but right now there is a question mark in this phase of bilateral ties. On his theory that Pakistan and the United States would not get a ‘divorce’, Kux said both countries had too much at stake to pull apart. “Countries function much like a company,” he said. “Businesses run to make money while nations function to pursue their vested purposes.”

On the US side is its deep economic, social and military investment in Afghanistan and ensuring its stability once they pull out of the country in 2014. “The United States knows Pakistan plays a vital role in a stable Afghanistan,” Kux said. Keeping with America’s vested interests in Afghanistan, Pakistan provides a relatively cost-effective land route to the northern neighbour from its port. Furthermore, as America grows cautious of China’s growing global strength and Iran’s influence among Muslim countries, it will need Pakistan as a stable ally.

But history proves Pakistan has often felt jilted by its ally on the ‘war on terror’. A prominent instance of the United States’ failure to take definitive steps in favour of Pakistan was when it was faced with a war against India. Leaving Pakistan to pick up the pieces after the Afghan war is another example. US administrations have also faced heavy criticism for supporting, if not endorsing, military dictators. However, Kux argued that former president Richard Nixon did send the Enterprise to the Bay of Bengal in a show of allegiance to Pakistan.

Still, with billions of rupees in international loans, a major power crisis and the economic and social cost of the fight against extremism, Pakistan needs to maintain its ties with America. As a nuclear power, Pakistan also needs to protect its strategic assets, and if the US is not on its side it should at least not be seen on India’s either.

“Despite everything, it is in American interest to want Pakistan to be what [Pervez] Musharraf talked about,” Kux said adding, “ ... a great, moderate and stable country.” According to Kux, however, whether policymakers agree or not, a stable Afghanistan is the key to a flourishing Pakistan. “Unrest in Afghanistan will spill over in Pakistan,” he said in a matter-of-fact tone. The spillover will then have a domino effect with declining foreign investments, a weak economy, greater social unrest etc. The realisation of the gas pipeline is also heavily dependent on a stable region.

He went on to say that perhaps it isn’t the wisest idea to transition power over to Afghan forces the same year, 2014, as the country will hold presidential elections, Kux said. The plan post American boots leaving Afghanistan is what requires the most work and effort. “There should be a peace-keeping force formed by Muslim countries in the region,” Kux suggested. “The most logical country to head the force would be Turkey.”

Kux advocated for Afghanistan to be a permanent non-alliance country come 2015 - with no foreign bases on its soil. “This way the country and its people can focus on their core issues and find a positive way forward.”

On public perceptions among Pakistanis on America, he said, “It has often been said that we do not care about the civilian side but this administration has proved otherwise.”

Published in The Express Tribune, November 22^nd, 2011.