The Iranian connection

Iran may be ‘a dangerous country’ in the western perception but for Pakistan, it can only be a source of strength.


Tanvir Ahmad Khan October 30, 2011

Two recent newspaper reports, entitled respectively “Iran offers to provide 10,000 MW” and “Pakistan dithers on Iran gas pipeline plan”, both slightly inaccurate, focused on Pakistan-Iran relations, the first being excessively optimistic and the second, overly pessimistic. Both of them, however, impinge on a key component of future bilateral relations. What Iran has done, apart from the firm offer of 1,000 MW, is to share with Pakistan the information that it may have a surplus of 10,000 MW and this may billed on the initial offer depending upon various other factors. The most obvious factors are that Iran may never want to commit too heavy a part of its surplus to a neighbour with a somewhat unpredictable relationship and, equally importantly, Pakistan’s import of Iranian power depends upon its capacity to absorb it. It also needs investment in costly transmission lines needed to carry a heavy load. Insofar as they reaffirm Iran’s willingness to be a substantial partner in Pakistan’s quest for energy, both stories are of strategic value.

Dr Asim Hussain’s observation that a breakthrough in the pipeline project depends on an ‘understanding’ with the “ international community” probably reflects the impact of Hillary Clinton’s warning against it during her recent visit to Islamabad on a government that has so far been unduly susceptible to ‘international’ (read American) pressure in formulating Iran policy. That it cannot continue to be so vulnerable to this pressure is seen in the emerging ground realities: Pakistan has not even initiated projects for large-scale power production that can come on line in time to rescue its economy in the near future and the alternative Turkmenistan-Pakistan-India pipeline (TAPI) is by no means free of problems and may not materialise for a decade or more.

No less important is the consideration that energy cooperation with Iran may well be the cornerstone of the architecture of Pakistan’s future security; its true strategic depth visualised in economic terms. Iran may be ‘a dangerous country’ in the western perception but for Pakistan, it can only be a source of strength. China’s trade turnover with this ‘dangerous country’ exceeds $40 billion and India has invested heavily even in Afghanistan to boost its commerce with Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia. Pakistan desperately needs to rebalance its strategic relationships and Iran will inevitably figure in this effort. Considering the projection by the US department of energy that the global demand for energy would increase by 50 per cent by 2035 and considering the present worldwide scramble for early options on possible sources, officials of the Pakistan government do not serve Pakistan’s interests well by categorising the Iran pipeline (IPI) and the TAPI in either/or formulations. Both of them have great importance for Pakistan and, if extended to India, can be game-changers.

Pakistan-Iran relations have generally been close; the march of history itself demands that the problems that have strained them in the recent past are isolated and resolved. The principal source of problems has been the difference in perspectives on Afghanistan. With long common borders with that country, Pakistan and Iran have a legitimate interest in the outcome of the process that began with the American intervention in Afghanistan in 2001. This interest is qualitatively different from the era when the Taliban were engaged in military campaigns to establish their rule in the length and breadth of their internally contested land, a project robustly resisted by Iran through its support for the Northern Alliance.

In any future dispensation, Pakistan will not want the supremacy of the Taliban and, given Iran’s pragmatism, Iran should not seek the hegemony of non-Pashtun factions. In fact, neither country has any business interfering in Afghanistan’s internal affairs beyond extending assistance that Kabul may want in promoting reconciliation amongst Afghan factions, ethnic or ideological, and ensuring its own territorial integrity. Iran’s relations with India also need to be better understood in Pakistan as an outreach reducing the perennial siege it faces; Iran may even facilitate the opening of a new chapter in India-Pakistan relations. It is time that instead of dithering because of exaggerated fears of ‘international’ displeasure, Islamabad becomes more proactive in arriving at a new strategic understanding with Tehran.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 31st,  2011.

COMMENTS (25)

Abbas from the US | 12 years ago | Reply

@Socius:

Arms of any kind supplied by an arms supplier and given assent to the supply by the country of origin, or "Arms selling Power" have an inbuilt clause against the transfer of such equipment to another country. Unless the Russians have a major interest in seeing the actual use of their technogy in neutralizing American air power, they will not look the other way if such a transfer was made by Iran to Pakistan. And if Iran was to disobey the terms of supply for the S700 Air Defence systems Russia could put a monkey wrench in the works of the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, a plant with construction in progress abondoned by the original French suppliers in 1979 after the Iranian revolution, And the Iranians have taken 30 years to get the Russians to finish the work on this Nuclear Power Plant and to do the startup.

Besides the vagaries of American power politics demand that Obama to keep the donations flowing with the help of the AIPAC (the American Israeli Public Action Committee), must demonstrate his commitment to the state of Israel as well as action now demanded by the House of Saud with a looming succession crisis, by initiating military action against Iran.

There are international sanctions as approved by the UN Security Council against doing businsess with an Iranian busisness or governement entity, any Pakistani attempt to circumvent these sanctions could have a reatliatory affect on the already depressed Pakistani economy.

A cautious wait and see approach is in the interests of Pakistan.

Cynical | 12 years ago | Reply

Iran is shia dominated.Friendship with them will affect our relationship with Saudis.

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