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A look at the budget 2011-12

Published: June 15, 2011

The writer is secretary information, PPP Sindh Women’s Wing.

Before discussing the budget, it is necessary to dwell on the environment in which Pakistan finds itself today. As a frontline state in the war against terror, it has paid a heavy price. Over 37,000 people have been martyred and 468 billion rupees suffered in collateral damage, and this goes to show that Pakistan is a brave and resilient nation, and the floods of 2010 added to the burden. The other major factor was a significant rise in international oil prices.

Despite this, the people’s government, because of its people-centric approach, has achieved success in a number of areas in the last three years. The budget 2011-12 is an effort on the part of the people’s government to solidify these gains as well as to create new opportunities for people.

When the budget for 2010-2011 was prepared, the price of oil was expected to be in the range of $70-75 per barrel but rose to $125 per barrel during the year. The third factor which continued to affect us adversely is national security and the fallout from the war on terrorism. This has consequences for our economy and affects our perceptions. It affects our business environment, investment flow and hence economic growth. And, ultimately, it affects the welfare of our people.

For example, the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) has received widespread acceptance from development partners. It uses technology so that the possibilities of corruption are limited. This year, the government spent Rs35 billion for providing a monthly stipend of Rs1,000 to low-income households and next year this amount will increase to at least Rs50 billion. If additional resources are available, this amount may be increased to Rs65 billion.

The government hopes to reduce the fiscal deficit further. It also hopes to reduce the rate of inflation to single digit levels through continued fiscal consolidation. A broad, equitable and stable revenue mobilisation system is under construction to meet our development needs. The government is maintaining and further developing social safety nets for the vulnerable while moving rapidly towards the elimination of untargeted subsidies. It is restructuring the loss-making public sector enterprises where possible. And despite its financial constraints, no new taxes have been levied.

The government understands and is aware of the difficulties being faced by government servants and pensioners. In order to provide some economic relief to them, the people’s government has increased their salaries by 15 per cent and pensions by 20 per cent. The government’s vision is to bring the poor and vulnerable segments of the population into the mainstream of development. It does not care about the propaganda campaign started by the PML-N, which was evident during the budget session. Rather, it believes in constructive criticism.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 16th, 2011.

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Reader Comments (39)

  • Jun 15, 2011 - 11:50PM

    I am scared to critique the naivety of your piece in case you slap me, shout at me, or call me an American agent!

    “Constructive criticism” coming from you? Recommend

  • Adnan
    Jun 15, 2011 - 11:54PM

    And the point of this article was?????? Seriously…. she literally said nothing new.. and nothing significant…. give me my 2 minutes back! Recommend

  • Raza
    Jun 16, 2011 - 12:22AM

    I see there is no accounting for the figures lost in corruption and the billions taken by state owned enterprises which are run by corrupt people because they are in favour with a few of the top brass of your party…..
    Or the obscene amount given to the military so that you do not fall out of favour with them….
    And last of all HAH….
    when was the last time you paid any heed to constructive criticism, though I do not like the way PML behaved during the budget speech a small part of me does feel you deserved it and this ‘mufahmati’ policy of yours will be remembered as one of the biggest blunders in pakistgans political history and it is and will be a major obstacle in our growth as you all decide to sit and loot this country…….
    Also what about the president and the prim ministers expenses, no austerity measures for them when you know that millions of people are starving in this country their monthly expenses can feed thousands of poor or provide education to thousands of children….
    You saw fit to raise the prime ministers allowances but not the education budget….
    And then you have the audacity to say that your efforts are not recognised….
    Last year the deficit was announced to be 600 billion rupees it crossed the trillion mark and the announced deficit this year is 800 billion rupees….
    Why were the poverty figures have not been released since you have come into power…Recommend

  • Shahzaib
    Jun 16, 2011 - 12:29AM

    What was this? Recommend

  • Pseudonym the First
    Jun 16, 2011 - 12:41AM

    Allah maaf karay hum saaron ko.Recommend

  • Meekal Ahmed
    Jun 16, 2011 - 1:27AM

    @Raza:

    Please, NO absolute numbers. Everything is relative. If you can’t get the nominal GDP figures (I am not going to spoon-feed you with them), don’t say anything.

    Pick up the phone yourself and either call the State Bank or the Economic Advisors Wing in the Ministry of Finance. Ask them for the estimated nominal GDP at current market prices for 2010-11 and the next years projected figure of the same (2011-12).

    However, I don’t blame you for being misguided. Both here and on some other leading papers, one person who is one of those dangerous pretense economists (I hope you are not) said, as if he had come up with a stunning discovery, that the budget deficit in 2011-12, say, XXX billion, is going to be the “highest ever”!

    Hello?

    Isn’t nominal GDP in current market prices also going to be the “highest ever”?

    Even if physical output growth is zero, and the economy is frozen in time, it will still grow by the amount of inflation.

    NO?

    That is why you need to divide the numerator (deficit, defense, education, development, or whatever) by nominal GDP at market prices and multiply the result by 100 to get a percentage.

    Whether we meet it or not (most likely we will not) you will discover, to your horror I am sure, that the projected budget deficit at 4% of projected GDP in current market prices is the LOWEST in Pakistan’s history!!

    Savvy?

    Good.

    Have a nice night. I will go and prune my rose bushes. Recommend

  • Abbas
    Jun 16, 2011 - 1:32AM

    First of all Miss. Sharmila , you shouldnt be in any givernment post. (accordning to the court order on you). Secondly what were you trying to say here? Pakistani do not need BISP they need a system. You are just making people beggers by giving them money. But what do you know anyways. You and your government (which includes your Father) can only take from our country and CANNOT give to it.
    Shame on you!! Please for love of Pakistan , stop your corruption.
    At the end I would like to request all people reading this. Please vote for Imran Khan. You guys need to come out and vote for him otherwise we will keep reading these stupid articles and watch our country fell lower.
    For the love of Pakistan please vote for IMRAN KHAN!!
    Abbas
    TorontoRecommend

  • Your daddy
    Jun 16, 2011 - 1:51AM

    Unforntunately your article lacks depth, does not cover any aspect of the budget in reasonable proportion. The only point you seem to make is that no one should criticize your party’s budget – at least give a reason why we shouldn’t?

    I don’t wish bad for you – just pray that you and your children get to live on the same salary that a average pakistani is expected to live on.

    Tribune Team,
    Does Sharmilla get the comments to her mail box? Can someone please send here a link to her article, so she can read these? Recommend

  • Meekal Ahmed
    Jun 16, 2011 - 2:11AM

    Madam,

    I think that this is an article that you should have avoided writing. I hope you were not pressured into writing it.

    There were many an article, speeches and economic briefs that I wrote in my time, not believing a word of what I had penned. But those were orders and, at least in my time, we obeyed orders.

    There is that famous song with the words: “Fool rush in, where wise men (and women) fear to tread…” that comes to mind. I hope you do not find my recalling that song offensive.

    I agree that the economy has been through, and continues to confront, fierce head-winds. Economists call it “exogenous shocks”. What this economy has been through in the past four years in terms of domestic and external shocks, is quite unparalled.

    Of course, the stance of macro-policies, if credible and tight, can help us cope with these adversities. Regretably, this has not been forthcoing. Recurrent fiscal slippage of 2-2.5% of GDP is not the way you can reduce demand pressures and get inflation down to the single-digit level — the best “relief” that any government can provide for the poor.

    How the tight 2011-12 budget is implemented, to state the obvious, will be crucial going forward. For the countries sake, I hope we will not be disappoiinted. Recommend

  • Nasir Jamshed
    Jun 16, 2011 - 2:23AM

    The situation on the ground won’t change despite your fancy words. People can’t give this government even benefit of doubt becaus of your lack of interest in governance; the thing is that this government doesn’t even pretend to govern. Every single word that you have written in this article has absolutely no meaning whatsoever.Recommend

  • Jun 16, 2011 - 2:46AM

    BISP is a wisp of Mr 10 percents imagination (should be Mr 99% now)Recommend

  • Al
    Jun 16, 2011 - 5:03AM

    HAHA…Sharmila the eco-no-mist…haha….Recommend

  • imran
    Jun 16, 2011 - 5:33AM

    this should be published in some foreign media(Economist etc) as a propaganda tool……. not in any local media……and about believing in that constructive criticism thing, really!Recommend

  • Ali
    Jun 16, 2011 - 6:15AM

    lol @ “People’s government” – The so called people’s government has not been able to provide even the most basic necessities to the “people” it represents..

    @ http://tribune.com.pk/story/178574/social-security-rs301-5m-disbursed-through-mobile-phones/

    60,000 cell phone’s distributed for free, how innovative of the people’s govt to do that..The tech savy “people” enrolled in the benazir income support program love the concept of mobile banking.. While the other people who cant read or write or should I say most of the people this “people’s government” represents are under the impression that the phone itself was all the support they required.
    “kudos to the cell phone company / distributor who sold the idea to the “peoples govt”, true salesman ”

    Humble request to the people’s government, bass karo there is a limit to everything..I don’t mind that you are corrupt, I think that I am just used to it by now.. By at least do something good not for me but to show off to your friends or relatives…plus there is so much money can buy, and I am sorry to inform you izzat or ghariat is not in that listRecommend

  • Abaabeel
    Jun 16, 2011 - 8:38AM

    Sharmila! You always let down whoever you speak for or write for. You seriously need to go back to college and at least learn how to write. For instance, what to make of the lines “Over 37,000 people have been martyred and 468 billion rupees suffered in collateral damage, and this goes to show that Pakistan is a brave and resilient nation, and the floods of 2010 added to the burden”. How do the damages go to show that we are brave, and what shows that we are resilient? For God’s sake, please get your stuff edited.Recommend

  • Asim+Ali
    Jun 16, 2011 - 9:49AM

    If you can’t be smart about something, at least don’t be stupid about it either. Now tell me how much tax has Zardari, Gillani and Hafeez Sheikh paid? Not to mention Sharif, Shujaat etc. And how much have parliamentarians defaulted on bank loans. Recommend

  • Suny
    Jun 16, 2011 - 9:52AM

    The article should have been named “Don’t look at the budget 2011-12″ Recommend

  • sam
    Jun 16, 2011 - 9:53AM

    lady you are a bunch of contradictions….. pls do tell how the following has improved under your corrupt government?

    1- the rising cost of electricity in months even when oil prices go down.. the govt loves to butt in for the 4000 menacing people sacked for political gain but not when it comes to ensuring the people are treated fairly when it comes to payment.. let me guess PPP also gets 10% here???

    2- we pay road taxes as a governing body and ruling party.. what role has been paid to ensure we drive on roads for a change???

    3- the govt decides it wants to build that God aweful draining system which isnt implemented city let alone country wide. and we need to pay for that too.. hello if you can stop swindling money from the budget to your off shore bank accounts perhaps our tax money could be put to good use here..

    4- why is it that the private sector and NGOs are the front runners when it comes to provision of health and education… please compare yourself to any third or fourth world country and youl realise this is the bare minimum the govt aims for …..

    5- inflation cannot be curtailed by issuing fresh notes.. it devalues money.. seriously pls find a new economic advisor…

    6- why is it that our precious tax money is being used to build a fort for the president???

    7- for that matter why is our tax money being used by the presidnt as pocket money and allowance to globe trott??

    8- lastly by setting up committe after committe which doesnt investigate anythign.. you havnt done justice to BBs, saleem sehzads or a million other such innocent peoples murder…

    so while we appreciate your sweet little effort.. do not insult our intelligence with such foolish articlesRecommend

  • Saad Durrani
    Jun 16, 2011 - 10:30AM

    @Shahzaib:
    A lousy marketing pitch. Recommend

  • Yousuf Nazar
    Jun 16, 2011 - 10:46AM

    The numbers have lost their credibility… I have spoken to people at Finance Minister and State Bank Governor level… it is almost point less… they don’t trust the numbers themselves, do not have much conviction and frankly do not inspire much confidence.. USAID numbers are mixed in revenues to hide actual fiscal deficit and the defense budget numbers are seriously underestimated… the list goes on and on. It is a folly to work with just the official statistics in developed markets leave alone our poor Pakistan. Inflation numbers are grossly underestimated and by implication, real growth is overestimated..I could go on but have stopped writing because it is completely futile. It has come to this that Ms. Farooqi’s articles are published in the Tribune on serious matters such as economy! I am just sad!Recommend

  • dextor
    Jun 16, 2011 - 10:52AM

    Express tribune please be open to present the neutral view…We are your beloved reader and have respect for your wrtiers..Sorry but this article was a bad choice to be selected.
    ABOUT ARTICLE:
    1. with due respect, please see the oil prices on the internet where they are staying from longer period.
    2. If you cannot forsee the prices of oil then you does not deserve to rule or make budget.
    3. Colateral damage…sorry its unilateral and Pakistans damage and our leaders benifits.
    4. If you cannot forsee the future requirements then how yould you rule.
    5. Did anyone suggested, how to cope with gas shortage.
    6. BISP, the wastage of money, please dont feed a fish to people just teach them how to catch a fish. I hope you get my point.
    Sorry but this looks like an SMS not an Article or blog.
    Recommend

  • Anam A
    Jun 16, 2011 - 11:10AM

    Pointless, Idealistic and Redundant articleRecommend

  • terex
    Jun 16, 2011 - 11:19AM

    @Sharmila Farooqi

    i like you too much..i watch all your programs .you are so polite and sweetRecommend

  • Almas Abbas
    Jun 16, 2011 - 11:47AM

    i hope Sharmila gets all the comments to read and ponder over and then realize the depth of peoples’ fair hatred as these are not from politicians but from public!Recommend

  • Shamy
    Jun 16, 2011 - 1:05PM

    a forgettable article….Recommend

  • Watchman
    Jun 16, 2011 - 2:16PM

    elementary school essay.. front line state lol
    i have never heard anything sensible from this lady.Recommend

  • Salman Orangiwala
    Jun 16, 2011 - 3:00PM

    Ms.Fiery and Budget commentary !!!!!! ?????

    C’mon gimme a break .Recommend

  • Casual
    Jun 16, 2011 - 3:19PM

    People of Pakistan like to see ‘Bright’ faces in the Parliament. Sharmeela is ONE of them :)Recommend

  • Adnan Siddiqi
    Jun 16, 2011 - 5:08PM

    Sharmila Ji, forget about politics and all of this budget mumbo jumbo. You are better suited to give us tips on how to cook good food and keep our houses in order; ala Zubaida Apa (No pun intended though!!)Recommend

  • Shan
    Jun 16, 2011 - 5:46PM

    @ Casual

    Yeah Right!!!Recommend

  • Farooq Khalid
    Jun 16, 2011 - 6:13PM

    She will never say the truth. Recommend

  • Jun 16, 2011 - 6:48PM

    Time and again i have suggested the women folk of the PPP to stay away from economic essay writing.
    For one, a girl who has a degree in architecture to tell us about the budget is a rude shock. But that being the state of affairs of the PPP, we must adhere to the garbage they seem to be dishing out in the absence of substance.
    Sharmila your need to write may better be complimented if you wrote on something you know about. Maybe enlighten us about the architecture of Pakistan and the way forward or something of that sort.
    The budget is something the PPP has made a real mess off, and as so many of the comments would point that no one is happy in the way your financial acumen has helped Pakistan in the short term.
    When Oil prices had plummeted i had suggested that Pakistan go right ahead and book futures contracts on oil at 32 and till $ 70.
    It costs 1 % as security to buy the futures, but then since none of these guys have enough brains nor the vision, and even if someone did do it, and with rising prices would have booked the profits in personal names.
    Sharmila you should at least not indulge in something you have no knowledge off and spare us from having to put you in your placeRecommend

  • ajmal
    Jun 16, 2011 - 7:50PM

    The economy matters wd be too much for you, just keep doing what you are good at. Recommend

  • Mir
    Jun 16, 2011 - 8:55PM

    what a mockery of the reality! Go take a hike and leave us Pakistanis alone.Recommend

  • Faisal L.
    Jun 16, 2011 - 10:16PM

    Was this article intended to bolster on “People’s government” achievements and planned developement? Recommend

  • Siraj Ahsan
    Jun 16, 2011 - 10:31PM

    Sharmila, I respect your effort to defend the indefensible.Recommend

  • S.Q
    Jun 17, 2011 - 12:53AM

    Reading this makes me laugh….Recommend

  • from India
    Jun 17, 2011 - 11:28AM

    politicians like you want people always to be poor, so that you can rule and reap the benefit …we also have few politicians like you in our country as well…. i can understand the frustration of educated pakistanis on you !!Recommend

  • H
    Aug 4, 2011 - 12:17PM

    A very shallow article. If PPP was serious about bringing inflation to single figures, State Bank wouldn’t have decreased interest rates by 50 basis points just a week after Mr. Kardar’s resignation. And you would be dealing with the structural problems in state-subsidized loss making entities.
    I realize that PPP was unlucky to get elected in such an adverse economic environment. However, they have to be leaders and make tough decisions. Spend your political capital on imposing agricultural and capital gains tax, not having stand-offs with the judiciary.

    Recommend

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