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What after Osama?

Published: May 3, 2011

The death of Osama is likely to raise more questions about Pakistan's intention in fighting terrorism. PHOTO: REUTERS

In the days to come, the death Osama Bin Laden in Abbottabad at the hands of the US military is likely to raise more questions about Pakistan’s intention in fighting terrorism than as a major achievement of Pakistan-US cooperation in the war on terror.

Islamabad, as it is obvious from the bland tone of the Foreign Office statement, cannot even openly claim any deep responsibility out of fear of repercussion from supporters of al Qaeda and militant jihadis within the country. The fact that he was living so close to the capital city undetected for so long will give cause for many to point a finger at Pakistan and say “didn’t we always say that?”

The pro-jihad, pro-GHQ media will most likely spring into action and decry the story as yet another propaganda campaign. One possible argument will be that Pakistan is being denied the glory of facilitating the operation.

Geo-politically, this capture could result in an acceleration of the already-planned US withdrawal from Afghanistan since the United States has now attained one of the primary objectives of its military presence in South Asia. However, this withdrawal may not necessarily mean lead to scaling down of CIA operations in Pakistan.

Indeed, the success of this operation will provide an excuse to US intelligence in keep probing in Pakistan to eliminate various sources of terrorism. The world will also be less sympathetic to Pakistan’s military and its capacity or willingness to challenge terrorism in the country.

While analysts are likely to focus more on what will this mean for the future of US-Pakistan relations, there is a need to look at the event as opening up possibilities for the country. It is certainly a good opportunity for policymakers, especially military commanders, to review the national and military strategies on fighting forces of terror.

Many people are already talking about an impending US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which, in turn, means that Pakistan will no longer remain a frontline state. The change in status will have a set of consequences, including a lesser flow of outside resources. However, the most important consequence is that Islamabad would have to think about building its own capability to fight networks of terror that that sprung up and strengthened inside Pakistan – some which are even al Qaeda franchises.

Harkatul Jihadul Islami, Jaishe Muhammad, Sipahe Sahaba, Lashkar-e-Jhangavi and Lashkar-e-Taiba are some of the many organisations that were allowed to spread their network and physical infrastructure into the ‘settled’ areas of Pakistan such as Punjab and Sindh.

These organisations have deep links with al Qaeda and have allegedly collaborated with Osama bin Laden’s terror network against targets in Pakistan and South Asia at large. The larger Asian region is concerned about the linkages as recent stories have emerged regarding individuals coming from Indonesia and many countries in Europe to train in Pakistan.

From a broader perspective, this may be an opportunity for the various elements of the Pakistani state to consolidate their thinking on how to fight the menace. It could develop the will to fight terrorism and keep people better informed about the militant elements which have penetrated the state and society at large.

Most of the militant outfits now have developed influential ties within the mainstream political parties as well. These militant forces might not conduct a vicious attack on the Pakistani state just yet. But they are likely to use the chaos to re-group and consolidate through manipulating the public discourse on terrorism run through the private and public media.

What is most certain is that the right-wing media (which is actually the bulk of mainstream media) will begin turning the event around on its head to classify this as some sort of super conspiracy against Pakistan.

The bottom-line is that the capture of Osama is a historical event which may not necessarily streamline Pakistan’s own policy on fighting the war on terror. That is unfortunate because with reduced US interest in Afghanistan, Islamabad would increasingly face the consequences of dealing with the local militant elements.

These private warriors, viewed by some as ‘strategic assets’, may now prove costly for the state’s security because Islamabad will have to fight this battle alone.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 3rd, 2011.

 

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Reader Comments (27)

  • Fahad Raza
    May 3, 2011 - 7:27PM

    Can I give a wild theory just for the sake of un wanted prediction… What if an A-bomb goes of in Europe Khalid Sheikh was talking about acc to “WIKILEAKS” then they establish connection with either IRAN or Pakistan.. then your guess can be good as mine … but hope it doesn’t happens actually… Recommend

  • Hedgefunder
    May 3, 2011 - 7:37PM

    @Fahad Raza:
    Well its nice to see that you have such thoughts!!!! Idiot, get real!Recommend

  • John
    May 3, 2011 - 7:53PM

    “Many people are already talking about an impending US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which, in turn, means that Pakistan will no longer remain a frontline state.”

    Others think that PAK is now a frontline state, except in collision course especially after Abbottoabad.. Karzai said that much in his announcement of OBL death and PAK president also expressed his fears in his letter to Washington Post. Recommend

  • unknown
    May 3, 2011 - 8:12PM

    I jst tell u(PAK GOVERNMENT),that why u ppl nt take any reaction against America..????
    They prove that they have the power n they use us…..u should take any action……We r’nt powerless bt you ppl(PAK GOVERNMENT) r coward…..so plz plz plz plz plz plz for the sake of ALMIGHTY ALLAH,take any action…….Recommend

  • Cautious
    May 3, 2011 - 8:35PM

    The real problem is that most Pakistani’s apparently didn’t mind that OBL was hiding in Pakistan – they are just embarrassed that the USA found and killed him in Pakistan.Recommend

  • Arslan
    May 3, 2011 - 8:43PM

    It’s simple: we’ll taste the ‘Ummah fraternity’ as Houthayfa Azzam, a ‘friend’ to Bin Laden, said that all al-Qaida will target Pakistan, their new leader, the ‘even more’ (sic!) extremist Ayman al-Zawahiri accusing Pakistanis of ‘killing Bin Laden’ (as much as Indians accuse us of keeping Ben Laden safe.)
    He said that al Qaida will no more target the mighty, glorious Arabs because they fear to lose credibility amongst them (‘lol’) but the non-Arab Pakistanis’s live is not that much valuable.
    In fact, al Qaida has always targeted Pakistan (since the Lal Masjid episode), but what I found interesting was that al-Qaida don’t give a sh*t about Pakistani live, contrarily to the civilized Arabs.

    Long live Islam & Islamic fraternity, as they say.Recommend

  • R S JOHAR
    May 3, 2011 - 10:43PM

    Infact Pakistan has a major role to play after US leaves Afghanistan. UK PM has already made a statement to this effect and even asked Pak to negotiate with Taleban so that they can make an early exit. However, Pakistan simultaneously has deal with TTP who have already issued a warning against the govt and military but if this outfit is joined by groups like Let, JeM, LeJ and others, it will result in disastrous consequences for the country.Recommend

  • Salim Ansari
    May 3, 2011 - 11:41PM

    @Arslan: ” … Long live Islam & Islamic fraternity, as they say. … ”

    I hope that you say it as a joke. Real fraternity is to the east of border – India/Hindustan. Hope is that the rulers realize that using China stick to beat India with will ultimately harm Pakistan. China, it will turn out – will be worse than US – sovereignty wise. Recommend

  • unknown
    May 4, 2011 - 12:07AM

    Well wat kinda of PAK US relations r u talkin about … why the heck ppl can’t understand one clear line of Holy Quran than non muslims can’t be any friends of muslims … if Pakis r muslims then they shud support all the Jihadi Tanzeems active here in pak as well as in Afghanistan and all over the world for the sake of protecting muslims and fighting against these so called peacemakers who r actually terrorists and extremists themself coz they’re using their power not their religious ways to impose their own man made ideas and plans all over the world. At least those are the ppl who are fighting against these terrorists (Americans and Jews) without having any nuclear power or atomic energy, without having jet fighter plans and without using so called technology, and stil are giving them a realy hard time …. and wat does the statement mean “Islamabad will be fighting alone against the Jihadi tanzeems … or Al Qaida or wateva mentioned” why don’t ISB show a completely RED EYE to non muslims and join hands with the muslims .. Why r they finding ways to keep with America like cowards in spite of joining the right path ………. !!!!!!!!!!!!!Recommend

  • Aftab Kenneth Wilson
    May 4, 2011 - 12:31AM

    One thing is for sure that USA located and took out late Osama bin Laden and we failed to do so, why?????? Our security agencies (according to ourselves) is rated as top among few but now lot of ifs and buts are pouring out both in favor and against. We must and should choose clear policy towards many lashkars other than our own Army. Ayesha, I agree with what you penned down.Recommend

  • Arslan
    May 4, 2011 - 1:05AM

    @Salim Ansari: Obviously I was sarcastic. But I was astonished with their humour: ‘not touch the Arabs because they’ll be negative about al Qaida… but hey, these other browns are free-meat’. But I don’t think that relations with India are that much wanted : see reactions on this very website, when someone talks of nuking Pakistan, 20+ people thumbs up. And concerning China, it’s a question of history: they’re not known to backstab their allies concerning USA, who’se 60 years old foreign policy have always been about treason. Recommend

  • Salim Ansari
    May 4, 2011 - 3:03AM

    @Arslan: “But I don’t think that relations with India are that much wanted : see reactions on this very website, when someone talks of nuking Pakistan, 20+ people thumbs up.

    And why do you think this sentiment exists ? Recommend

  • Arslan
    May 4, 2011 - 3:28AM

    @Salim Ansari:
    History : we both fought in wars. That’s just logical. Both nations have seen the worthy price of blood, of course there wouldn’t be any ‘true’ ‘friendship’ (if it has political meaning at all) : but we can have cultural, economical, exchanges. I’m just saying that we can’t trust them as we do with China.Recommend

  • vasan
    May 4, 2011 - 6:50AM

    The new OBL (UNKNOWN) has arrived. Recommend

  • R S JOHAR
    May 4, 2011 - 11:38AM

    @Aftab Kenneth Wilson:
    Dont under-rate your intelligence agencies since they were able to hide Osama from highly rated American surveillance system for ten long years is no less a big achievement if not desireable.Recommend

  • Ahmer Ali
    May 4, 2011 - 12:13PM

    Assalam-o-Allaikum Warahmatullah.Nothing shall change after the death of Osama Bin Laden because “every one shall have the taste of death” and the most important thing in ones life,id est,objectives and goals of life in every man’s life.Enmity between Alqaeda/Taliban and muslims and US and advance West world shall always maintain in the future.There are lots of Osama in the muslims and by killing one Osama shall never change others mindsets.The death is the honor for a muslim than the life of slavery.Americans and the world shall not be rejoiced on Osama Bin Laden’s death for long time.Recommend

  • Hedgefunder
    May 4, 2011 - 1:14PM

    @Arslan:
    Try pulling stunts like, what Pak has been doing with US, with the Chinese and see what they would have done to you!!!
    Don’t be under any illusion, the chinese would have walked in to your country and taken over, while the world and Pak people would have been left protesting about it!!!!!Recommend

  • Arslan
    May 4, 2011 - 8:18PM

    @Hedgefunder:
    The alliance with USA, since the first time (Ayyub Khan era), was a double-edged sword: that’s why the first military-man-turned-’democratic’-president said ‘friends, not masters’ to the torch-bearers of Liberty. It’s not of the same nature with China: we have a common enemy in the region, Bharat. That’s realpolitik: of course it’s not a mutual ‘love’, this kind of relationship is more in Turkey. With China, it’s just a simple but strong political alliance. We can never have the same with India, that’s all.Recommend

  • Khurdra
    May 4, 2011 - 8:39PM

    @Hedgefunder:
    are you expert on china….were you born in china….
    who are you to “assume ” like that….
    If I am not wrong, India tried a war with China in 1962…result was total failure….may be that has taught you a lesson….China is hard nut to crack….
    ha ha Recommend

  • Hedgefunder
    May 5, 2011 - 12:20AM

    I am no expert on china, however i have travelled extensively through the region and can speak Mandarin too. I also understand their mentality, due to having worked with them and can relate to them!!!
    So I hope that answers your question!!!
    So enlighten me about your experience of chinese then, as you are so keen to discuss?Recommend

  • Cherish Raj
    May 5, 2011 - 1:44AM

    @Arslan:
    For peace with India, the ball is always in Pakistan’s court. It is something on which Pakistan has exclusive control because India has stood for peace all along. Pakistanis have always used 1971 as an excuse for fueling hostility against India without realizing the gruesome violence the Pakistani military had unleashed on the minorities of the former East Pakistan. It was Pakistan who has always attacked India, in 1965 as well as in Kargil. Pakistan’s security establishment has committed all the big blunders, by joining the Soviet Jihad and the war on terror keeping India in mind. As everybody knows, both turned out to be huge disasters. Pakistan is always in search of allies whom it can ‘trust’. I do not understand why does the worlds sixth largest country needs to be a client state to anybody. I feel that this whole search for allies whom you can ‘trust’ means something sinister- a search for some powerful country who can bail you out from the aftereffects of causing huge damage to India. That is something that reeks of negativity.I think that over the years India has learned to live with the hostility better in spite not being in any military pact like SEATO or CENTO etc. I feel that our leaders have managed to keep away from all these power blocks though we have always been threatened by Pakistan. If peace prevails, good for both countries, if not, there would not be much difference. Pakistan will always be in some power blocks and India will continue with its business.Recommend

  • Pakistani Engineer
    May 5, 2011 - 10:29PM

    @Hedgefunder:
    I read your anti Pakistan comment to @Khurdra…
    I have also worked with Chinese and all that matters to them is their honesty hard work and friendship for friends…..It seems to be a case of “Sour Grapes” for you and India…..You tried to fight with China in 1962…failed miserably…then India tried to befriend China through direct and indirect channels…it failed again….
    so be rest assured…you will never have China as serious friend…on the other hand China is investing billions of $ even in today’s volatile conditions in the shape of Mass Transit Project, Chashma Nuclear Power Projects, Joint Strike Fighter, Flood relief, Gawadar Port,Even the colorful auto-rickshaws that run on the streets of Lahore and the North West Frontier Province are made in China.
    Moreover Tianjin Zhongbei Harbor Engineering Supervision Corp., China Harbor Engineering Company Group, MCC and the Bureau of Geophysical Prospecting (BGP)–are working on a range of projects in Baluchistan.
    Now coming back to India….you sought some help of financial might of Europe and USA because you wanted to move up by standing on shoulders of EU and USA….that in turn was done by following the rule : “If you can not defeat them, join them”…
    So India turned away from faulty Russian technology and started to sleep in lap of USA which in turn till yesterday termed India as “Call center nation”…remember Obama….!!Recommend

  • May 7, 2011 - 7:54PM

    @Cherish Raj:

    Some of the reasons to be vary of India :-

    • India is Number 1 enemy of Pakistan since inception.
    • India never accept existence of Pakistan. Indian leadership predicted fall of Pakistan within 4 months in 1947. Some Pundits predict it again but these predictions will met same fate.
    • India illegally occupied Kashmir, Hyderabad Deccan, Junagarh and Manawar States by launching Indian military against the understanding of the Partition in 1948.
    • Indians attacked Run of Kutch and Azad Kashmir in 1965 leading to 1965 War
    • India dismembered half of Pakistan in 1971.
    • Indians have occupied Siachin Glacier and Sir creek which are Pakistani territories.
    • India is supplying arms, ammunitions, money and all sort of support to handful of Baloch Separatists. Once MM Singh in accepted this in ‘Sharm el-Sheikh’ conference- whole India got after that poor Sikh.
    • India is stealing Pakistani Water by building Dams after Dams on Jhelum, Nenlum and Chenab Rivers. These rivers are in Pakistan’s Share as per Indus Water Treaty.
    • India is giving billions of rupees to so called Sindhi Nationalists who rally against the construction of Kalabagh Dam on River Indus in Pakistan.
    • Even India is trying to built a tunnel for further stealing water of Indus River by spending billions of dollars. I foresee next Pak-India War on the issue of Water Stealing.
    • India gave the status of “Most Favored Nation” to Pakistan but on ground the non-tariff barriers are extremely harsh, strict and biased.
    • Indian media is always extremely sarcastic about Pakistan, its ideology and leaders.
    • At all World Forum Indian vote is always against the interest of Pakistan.
    • At all World Forums, Indian delegates go all out to defame, disgrace and isolate Pakistan from rest of the World.
    • Narendra Modi, killer of 3000 innocent Muslims in Gujarat State, is being portrayed as next PM of India.
    • India is piling up huge military hardware worth billions of dollars and that is alarming for Pakistan.Recommend

  • malik
    May 7, 2011 - 10:02PM

    @Khalid Masood:

    For the first time, I agree with you on all points.

    Of course, India is getting more and more powerful. Can we do anything about it except feeling jealous?

    Pls answer this, Khalid saab, given the track record of our Army, Why should we trust them any more?Recommend

  • May 8, 2011 - 12:06AM

    @malik:

    Please do not trust your Army. Send them home. Move to a cave. Wait for your fate.

    What non-sense you are talking about ?

    Trouble is that you see the army in cities and towns only.

    Please go and spend a single night at any of the post of Siachin Glacier or adjacent area along LoC. Next morning I would like to ask you opinion about Pak Army officers and men who spend their blissful years of youth at such places.Recommend

  • R S JOHAR
    May 8, 2011 - 11:14AM

    @malik:
    Firstly I would like to point-out that 70% of Khalid Masood’s comments are either incorrect or twisting the actual facts.
    Regarding your comments about India getting powerful is that though on economic front India has made substancial progress but about 26% people are still below poverty line therefore lot still needs to be done.
    Regarding military capibility of India my submission is that, dont compare Pakistan with us because we are five times bigger and have far more resources than your country but both sides are nuclear armed which gives parity to you. Moreover, the present military expansion is China centric and not Pakistan. There is little chance of war between two countries as long as Kargil or Mumbai are not repeated and large number of militants are not sent across the border.
    Regarding your military my views are that they are highly professional but doing wasteful expenditure for achieving parity with India and keeping close contact with terror oufits and both are proving to be counter-productive ventures.
    My final comments are that Pakistan should now focus on its economy and only then it will have less dependance on Americans. Recommend

  • Ambreen Darjat
    May 8, 2011 - 3:45PM

    Why not just keep tickets at Abbotabad’s compound and make it a tourism spot? At least we’ll earn from all the frenzy going around ! =DRecommend

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