Pakistan prone to Tunisia-style unrest: IFRC

IFRC says food insecurity may develop into political turmoil – something that Zardari is ‘very worried about’.

NEW DEHLI: Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani may have confidently stated otherwise, but, according to the head of the international Red Cross federation, a Tunisia-styled social unrest is  a “real probability” in Pakistan.

Food insecurity caused by the devastating floods in Pakistan could eventually lead to unrest similar to that seen in Tunisia, Tadateru Konoe, president of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), warned on Monday

The ominous analysis comes just a day after Gilani told the media that Pakistan’s situation is very different from Tunisia and Egypt, where social uprisings have caused upheaval.

Increasing disasters and conflicts across the world and shrinking aid from traditional Western donors meant emerging economies like India, China and Brazil should play a greater role in humanitarian relief, Konoe said.

Pakistan is still reeling from the effects of floods which lashed the country six months ago that left 11 million people  homeless and devastated crops sown over hundreds of thousands of hectares in the traditional food-basket regions of Sindh and Punjab.

Konoe said some agricultural areas were still submerged, and resulting price rises and growing food insecurity could be destabilising.

“If the crops may be lost for successive years, it may develop into some sort of social unrest and political turmoil. That is what the president was very much worried about,” Konoe told Reuters, referring to President Asif Ali Zardari.

“I don’t know how long they can stand this type of situation ... but it may be utilised by political opponents to criticise the government, so a minor thing may become a big thing like the situation in Tunisia,” he said in an interview.

Weeks of violent protests in Tunisia over poverty, repression and corruption forced President Zine al Abidine Ben Ali out on January 14 after 23 years in power.

Pakistan is saddled with a long list of troubles, including a Taliban insurgency, rampant poverty, corruption and power cuts. Inflation is fast becoming one of the most potentially explosive problems for the government.

Konoe said Zardari had expressed concern over the problem of food insecurity while the Red Cross head was on a visit to Pakistan in October last year.

“The president of Pakistan said ‘we can manage for the time being, but if the situation continues like this, for some more time, we may enter into difficult times’. He did not specify how long they could manage,” said Konoe.

The role of emerging economies

The IFRC head said funding for disasters such as the floods in Pakistan was becoming increasingly difficult, adding that aid agencies had to find alternative sources to fund the rising number of humanitarian emergencies occurring around the world.

Konoe said emerging markets, or BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – should become part of the traditional donor community and match their increasing global diplomatic and economic influence with aid.

Excluding the 2010 earthquake in Haiti and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, appeals by organisations like the United Nations and the IFRC remain under-funded because of a number of factors, including global financial crisis and apprehensions over corruption.

“The BRICs are not yet coming forward in terms of providing humanitarian relief, but they should combine their economic cooperation with humanitarian aid to improve their image (as global powers),” said Konoe, a Japanese national.

“This is one thing I want to discuss with the Indian leadership when I meet them ... I have discussed this briefly with China and they were just nodding like that -- as a sort of gesture.”

Published in The Express Tribune, February 1^st, 2011.