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                        <title>News Opinion &amp; Reviews - The Express Tribune</title>
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                        <description>The Express Tribune keeps you up to date with all the latest happenings from Pakistan and across the world!</description>
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			<title>Hormuz — alternatives and peace</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2599272/hormuz-alternatives-and-peace</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2599272/hormuz-alternatives-and-peace#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Wed, 25 Mar 26 20:29:35 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Inam Ul Haque]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2599272</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[US seems desperate to clinch a deal as the cost of war has spiralled out of control]]>
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				<![CDATA[Aside from Iran&#39;s de-nuclearisation, the other objectives of war set by the US-Israel Coalition (complete de-missilefication, regime change and military surrender) are not possible without boots on the ground, which in itself is a risky proposition.

The two emergent default war objectives, ie, the opening of Strait of Hormuz and re-instilling the Arab Gulf&#39;s confidence in the US security architecture, now consume policy circles in the US. Opening of Hormuz to calm the nerves around the globe is on top. Iran, on Wednesday, announced permitting &#39;innocent passage&#39; through the Strait, as some 700 tankers are stuck on both sides.

Pakistan, under its mature and astute diplomacy, is trying to broker a deal if the Pasdaran (IRGC) could be calmed by the Iranian side. The US seems desperate to clinch a deal as the cost of war has spiralled out of control, damaging American global standing diplomatically, militarily, politically and economically, in pursuing this unnecessary &#39;war of choice&#39;, as most American commentators call it.

A meeting between Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and the Iranian side in Islamabad in the coming days would be a real icebreaker; Islamabad is close to both sides and not party to the conflict.

Back to Hormuz. Iran&#39;s around 2,250 km southern coastline provides immense geopolitical leverage and is protected by Irani Navy, equipped with numerous speed boats, ensconced in tunnelled bays, operating drones and anti-ship combos like the Chinese CM-302 anti-ship missiles. The Hormuz waterway lies between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

The Musandam Peninsula, in the south, is shared by the UAE and the Omani exclave of Musandam Governorate. Iran, from inland silos or offshore platforms, controls the northern and eastern coast of this critical chokepoint, through which roughly 20% of global oil and 25% gas trade, and other vital supplies like food, grain, medicines and fertilisers pass.

Iran employs an Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) strategy through &#39;mobile AD umbrella&#39; and maritime swarms to challenge superior naval powers, protecting Hormuz&#39;s mountainous and difficult coastline.

The Strait contains the islands of Qeshm, Hormuz, Larak, Abu Musa, Hengam, Tunbs, etc. Hormuz is about 167 km long, with a width varying between 97 km and 34 km. It is marked by 3.2 km inbound and outbound lanes, called the traffic separation scheme (TSS), with a 3.2 km median lane.

The Strait is deep enough for super tankers, carrying Saudi, Iraqi, UAE, Kuwaiti and Qatari petroleum products, as a primary route for Europe and Asia. More than 85% of the crude oil (20-21 million barrels daily (mb/d) goes to Asian markets in China, Japan, India and South Korea, meeting over 80% of these countries&#39; needs. The closure also affects Europe and Asia more than the US.

To navigate the Strait, ships pass through the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, &#39;desirably&#39; under the UN Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), not ratified by Iran. Since 1959, after Iran expanded its territorial sea to 22 km, Hormuz has been virtually Iranian territory. This enables Iran to &#39;legally&#39; obstruct sea-borne traffic, if not &#39;innocent&#39;.

Since 1993, Iranian maritime law requires warships, submarines and nuclear-powered ships to obtain prior permission before passage through Iran&#39;s territorial waters. Oman, the other littoral state, ratified UNCLOS in 1989, but also requires &#39;innocent passage&#39; and prior permission for foreign warships. The US does not recognise Iranian and Omani claims.

Global oil demand is projected to be around 104.8 mb/d in 2026. Alternative to the Strait, the onshore pipelines can only transport a maximum of around 9-10 mb/d. All LNG must ship through the Strait. Alternative routes include Saudi Arabia&#39;s Iraq Pipeline (IPSA), with a capacity of 1.65 mb/d. Saudi East-West Pipeline (Petroline) from KSA to Yanbu on the Red Sea, pumping 5.9 mb/d. UAE&#39;s Habshan-Fujairah oil pipeline to Fujairah oil terminal on the Gulf of Oman can carry around 2 mb/d.

Iraq-T&uuml;rkiye Pipeline (ITP) from Kirkuk (Iraq) to Ceyhan (T&uuml;rkiye) carries 1.6 mb/d. And the Goreh-Jask Pipeline from Goreh (Iran) to Jask (Gulf of Oman) has a capacity of 1 mb/d. Iran has targeted terminals in Fujairah (UAE) and Yanbu (Saudi Arabia). Three countries (Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain) have no pipeline alternatives and are entirely dependent on Hormuz.

Iran can also mine Hormuz. US Defence Intelligence Agency in 2019 estimated Iran to have over 5,000 naval mines, deployable via high-speed boats. The ground offensive options to open Hormuz (to achieve other war objectives) may comprise: a) Coalition &ndash; with or without UN authorisation &ndash; landing Marines/ Army on the island group within the Strait, with or without landing on the Iranian coast.

B) land on the Kharq Island, also called &#39;Forbidden Island,&#39; housing Iran&#39;s oil and gas export infrastructure. Kharq is 25 km off the Iranian coast and 660 km northwest of the Strait; or c) invade Iran from southwest (Iraq) through Khuzestan Plain, with or without combining the assault with capturing some cities initially, including Tehran. Israel, while employing concurrent intelligence operations, etc., may not contribute troops due to its Lebanon incursions and exhaustive Gaza deployment.

On the other hand, in US wargames, though Iran&#39;s simulated strategy to block Hormuz beats the American Military&#39;s material superiority, Iran&#39;s own dependence on oil exports and import of refined oil through the Strait, and passage fees, etc., inhibits longer closure.

Iran maintains 12 days of &#39;domestic strategic fuel reserve&#39; and another 50-plus days of &#39;floating storage&#39;. Degradation of its oil facilities makes Tehran militarily vulnerable, and such closure is &#39;double-faced&#39;. Iran, thus, acts as a reactive actor, curtailing its freedom to take risks under prolonged hostilities, being dependent upon the waterway. Hormuz&#39;s protracted closure is thus diplomatically, militarily and economically infeasible.

In asymmetric conflicts, tangible National Power Potential is advantageous to the stronger side, in the short-term. In long-drawn conflicts, intangibles like will-to-fight, and justness of cause, etc., play a decisive role. Denial of objectives to the stronger side also makes the weaker side win. Iran has these advantages and has demonstrated tenacity to continue. But it also has serious vulnerabilities and other punishing constraints.

Right now, the mere fact that Iran has withstood the joint US-Israeli onslaught for over a month makes Iran a winner in public perception. It is time to go for a deal, under Islamic hikmat.]]>
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			<title>Security-centric policies and trade</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600931/security-centric-policies-and-trade</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600931/security-centric-policies-and-trade#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Fri, 03 Apr 26 20:11:05 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Imtiaz Gul]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2600931</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Pakistan has refrained from engaging with other countries, has excluded dissenting voices]]>
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				<![CDATA[Pakistan appears to be trapped in a paradox. While its private sector leaders advocate for dialogue and inclusion, its public policy, both in words and actions, suggests otherwise. Pakistan has refrained from engaging with other countries and has excluded dissenting voices.

The state has ardently advocated for connectivity for cross-border trade. It is involved in multiple transit and preferential trade agreements with Central Asian states, including Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan, to promote regional trade. Pakistan also aspires to become a pivotal Eurasian trade hub for the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), an alternative to traditional routes that connect India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia and Central Asia via ship, rail and road. However, geopolitical complications and current strains emanating from the war with Iran have reduced the INSTC to a mere concept as of now.

State functionaries often emphasise Pakistan&#39;s geostrategic location as a unique selling point, a leverage that leaders repeatedly highlight as a potential game-changer. However, this leverage loses its significance when political considerations hinder critical movement through the strategic location. This is precisely what transpired after Pakistan closed its border with Afghanistan on October 11, 2021. Consequently, the leverage has lost its value, as evidenced by some concerning basic data.

For instance, Pakistan&#39;s cumulative trade with Afghanistan and the five Central Asian republics during 2025 surpassed $2.41 billion, but has since receded to a mere fraction of last year&#39;s figures since the border closure. Data released by the State Bank of Pakistan indicates that exports to Afghanistan plummeted to $219.5 million in July-December 2025, a significant decline from the $505.8 million recorded during the same period in 2024. Similarly, imports from Afghanistan amounted to slightly above $6 million in July-December 2025, compared to the $10 million recorded in the same period in 2024.

The cross-border trade movement to the Eastern border has also been severely impacted, as India has opted to suspend its participation. Consequently, the leverage has effectively been suspended, albeit for all practical reasons, although not attributable to Pakistan&#39;s actions.

It is unsurprising that the current policy raises a fundamental question: how can Pakistan develop and engage in trade if its western and eastern neighbours remain closed or are subject to politically-induced suspensions, albeit intermittent?

This question emerged during a recent reception with European diplomats who expressed a keen interest in understanding the rationale behind the suspension of all movement on the western border. These inquiries stem from a fundamental thesis: economic interests should ideally serve as effective deterrents to unlimited war or, at the very least, restrict the extent of war or a perpetual state of conflict with a neighbouring nation. This principle also dictates the appropriate duration for a country to withhold its exportable surplus, thereby denying itself essential foreign exchange, which is crucial for maintaining a balanced budget and facilitating investment.

A recent import-export traders&#39; meeting convened by the Centre for Research and Security Studies in Islamabad also unveiled some concerning truths.

Pakistan has lost its Afghan market to Iran, Uzbekistan, and even Turkey. The loss of Afghanistan has resulted in a substantial reduction in Pakistan&#39;s overall trade, as the traders emphasised. According to these traders, the impact extended beyond Afghanistan, encompassing Central Asia and beyond.

Traders, informed of the situation, expressed concern that many had received advance payments in the millions of dollars from their clients and subsequently purchased raw materials that are now rendered obsolete or stale. The absence of a border and the disruption of supply have resulted in the loss of contacts and opportunities, at least temporarily. Traders emphasised that returning the advance payments, which were initially received in dollars, presents a daunting task due to the stringent remittance regulations. Consequently, both customers and traders have suffered losses.

Pakistan&#39;s economic leverage is currently severely constrained by security-centric policies, which are rooted in the belief that coercion can induce cooperation in the security realm. The lack of consistency in policy and the reluctance to shield business from political influences continue to hinder the country&#39;s potential long-term economic and socio-political gains.

While it is undeniable that every individual&#39;s life holds immense value, particularly of those serving in national service, it is crucial to consider the broader economic implications of placing the lives of state security personnel above the interests of the nation as a whole. Sri Lanka, for instance, lost thousands of lives on its mainland, including in Colombo, due to the LTTE insurgents. However, it maintained open borders with India and other potential investors.

Taiwan, while firmly aligned with the Western camp, enjoys preferential treatment from China, which views it as an integral part of its territory and is patiently awaiting its reintegration with the mainland. China provides Taiwanese investors and businessmen with various advantages, such as tax exemptions and rebates, which Beijing exercises with strategic finesse. Despite running tensions with the Taiwanese government, Beijing has never compromised its strategic leverage with the Taiwanese business and investor community.

It is hoped that the latest round of talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan in China will help de-escalate the conflict and facilitate the reopening of borders. However, it is essential that guarantees are provided to permanently safeguard the cross-border movement against closures induced by political tensions.

Without the implementation of durable and predictable mechanisms, translating Pakistan&#39;s geographic advantage or leverage into tangible economic benefits will remain elusive.]]>
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			<title>AI filter and reset</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600930/ai-filter-and-reset</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600930/ai-filter-and-reset#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Fri, 03 Apr 26 20:11:05 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Farrukh Khan Pitafi]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2600930</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Both acceleration and complexity are making AI more agentic and capable]]>
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				<![CDATA[Friends who know my reading habits and hyper-fixations often ask what is preoccupying my mind these days. The Iran war and its consequences are now a lived reality. But that preoccupies me no more than any ordinary citizen or journalist. What dominates my thoughts is a hard question, one I have discussed here more than once and which is only becoming more pressing: our coexistence with advanced machines.

Its urgency grows every time I read tech news or a book on the subject, or talk to friends in Silicon Valley. Progress on the AI front is breathtaking. Both acceleration and complexity are making AI more agentic and capable. This may have led Nvidia&#39;s CEO, Jensen Huang, to claim that we may already have achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a theoretical advanced form of AI that can understand, learn, and apply knowledge across any intellectual task at a level equal to human capabilities.

It does not pose any direct threat at this time. Granted, in their irrational exuberance, some early-adopter companies may replace their workforce with AI, but given the high cost of tokens and other expenses, they may live to regret it. It becomes a challenge when either of two things happens: economies of scale in the field, or the emergence of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), a theoretical stage where AI surpasses human cognitive abilities in every field and can exist without human assistance.

An ASI can independently design, replicate and upgrade itself. If it emerges, it can have significant direct and indirect impacts. Indirectly, it can displace all jobs. Since by this time it might be growing exponentially smarter, it may also directly rise and overthrow civilisation. Some experts believe in such an outcome.

Such a timeline, in my view, would be marked by three characteristic stages of human response. First, mankind wakes up to the existential peril and puts up a weak regulatory response, because by the time the real impact shows, it might be too late. Second, the merger. To retard its growing disadvantage relative to ASI, humanity may seek to merge with the technology. You have seen mushrooming investment in brain-computer interfaces. Elon Musk&#39;s Neuralink is not the only game in town. Then comes the final stage, where ASI sees the biological component of such a merger, us, as a liability and a serious constraint on its growth and freedom of action. At this stage, it may move to remove such a constraint, bringing an end to humanity. I know this got dark quickly.

If the balance of probabilities leads you to take this timeline seriously, you may find that it resolves another hard problem in an unfortunate way. For three quarters of a century, scientists and philosophers have puzzled over the ostensible contradiction between the high probability of extraterrestrial life and the lack of evidence for it. This is called the Fermi paradox. Let us assume that for a civilisation slightly more advanced than ours, the emergence of ASI presents an existential threat. This would mean that whichever alien civilisation reached the level of advancement where ASI was invented, it was probably its last invention. Therefore, any such civilisation is no longer around to tell the tale.

Countless caveats apply here. There is always the chance that an emerging ASI may behave differently from what is anticipated, or that mankind or ASI finds a way to stabilise the ASI-human relationship, or that ASI never truly emerges. Tech experts and philosophers already talk about qualia, the subjective, phenomenal and individual instances of conscious experience, as being peculiar to humans alone.

There is also the possibility that tech leaders are right, and the AI explosion creates countless new jobs, proving all our anxieties unfounded. If the industry&#39;s billionaires are right and humanity is not about to be displaced en masse by technology, they should share some evidence with us. A man supervising AI is only a temporary fix, which may not last beyond a generation or two.

This leads to two of my favourite hypotheses: &#39;the Anthropic Principle&#39; and &#39;the Fine-Tuned Universe&#39; hypothesis. Fine-tuning observes that physical constants are precisely set for life to exist, while the Anthropic Principle explains this by stating that we can only observe a universe compatible with our existence. Only a large set of highly improbable events might have ensured continuous human existence. In other words, the timeline is biased in favour of humanity&#39;s continued existence. Imagine the probability of an undefended species, a sitting duck against the elements of space, surviving natural disasters, COVID being the most recent, and its own stupidity, nuclear brinkmanship during the Cold War, for millions of years. If so, it stands to reason that a reset is coming to save us from an ASI filter.

This could take three forms: a soft reset, a hard reset, and a compromise between the two.

The soft reset could materialise as a leftist tsunami across the world. The political right has never been more powerful. But as its rise marked the death of political centrism, its antithesis also emerged in Bernie Sanders&#39; democratic socialism. In political groups like the Democrats, the general impulse is to elect another centrist, but on the left wing of the party, the growing resentment at having allegedly been cheated out of victory three times is reaching a fever pitch.

Zohran Mamdani&#39;s rise, the weakening of far-right momentum in Europe and the failure of right-wing governments to restrain billionaire ambitions, leading to existential dread, indicate an impending shift. Add to this the consequences of the ongoing Iran war, its economic impact and the fragmentation of the far-right ecosystem.

Even if the war stops today, the average citizen will feel the impact on household finances for a long time and will not let the incumbent elite forget this easily. In the &quot;Artificial Intelligence Data Centre Moratorium Act&quot;, co-sponsored by Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, one can see early preparation for such a reset.

A moderate reset may materialise if this war lingers and rising energy costs disproportionately impact the AI industry, stymying growth and tempering some of the irrational exuberance currently visible.

A hard reset could come if this or any other conflict escalates into a world war and destroys the foundations of technological momentum. Of course, other violent upheavals could lead to the same result.

All of the above is hypothetical. But a gut feeling tells me two things. The far-right billionaire nexus is about to break. And due to their cognitive dissonance, the elite are in for a rude shock. Wealth or fanaticism cannot always shield you from the consequences of your actions.]]>
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			<title>Thar's coal must power people, not just plants</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600925/thars-coal-must-power-people-not-just-plants</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600925/thars-coal-must-power-people-not-just-plants#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Fri, 03 Apr 26 20:11:05 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Surendar Valasai]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2600925</guid>
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				<![CDATA[Can Thar's coal also drive local industry and livelihoods?]]>
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				<![CDATA[For years, Tharparkar has been at the centre of Pakistan&#39;s energy discourse. Vast coal reserves have fueled major power projects, helping address the country&#39;s electricity shortages. Yet, for the people of Thar, the promise of prosperity remains only partially fulfilled. The focus on large-scale power generation has overshadowed a critical question: can Thar&#39;s coal also drive local industry and livelihoods?

The answer lies in a simple but transformative idea - coal briquettes. Produced by compressing processed coal into compact fuel blocks, briquettes offer a cleaner and more affordable alternative for commercial and domestic use. Widely used in many countries, they are particularly suited for small industries, tandoors, restaurants and low-income households.

Despite this potential, Thar has yet to develop a local industry around this value-added product. The result is a familiar pattern: raw resources are extracted, but local communities see limited economic benefit.

It goes without saying that Pakistan&#39;s natural resources must serve its people, particularly those in historically neglected regions.

Coal briquettes offers the right solution as this approach is rooted in inclusive development, where growth is measured not just in megawatts or macroeconomic gains, but in the empowerment of ordinary citizens. The challenge, however, lies in translating this vision into practical policy interventions that directly benefit local communities.

Establishing a coal briquette industry in Tharparkar offers precisely such an opportunity. By creating a value-added industry around coal, the province can unlock a new economic layer that connects natural resources with local enterprise. This can be achieved through a combination of public sector pilot projects and strong private sector participation, supported by incentives, simplified approvals and access to finance. Equally important is the promotion of small and medium enterprises and community-based production units, ensuring that the benefits of industrialisation are widely distributed.

A critical barrier to this transformation is access to coal itself. At present, local entrepreneurs have limited or no structured access to Thar coal for small-scale industrial use. Without a regulated and transparent supply mechanism, the idea of local participation will remain largely aspirational. There is an urgent need to allocate coal quotas for local industry, ensure controlled and affordable pricing, and establish systems that prevent monopolisation and exploitation.

Such measures must be anchored in a clear provincial policy framework that promotes coal-based value addition rather than limiting its use to power generation alone. Technical and financial support, along with targeted training programmes for local youth, will be essential in building capacity and confidence among emerging entrepreneurs. Institutional backing will further ensure sustainability and scale.

The economic and environmental dividends of such an initiative are significant. By providing an alternative fuel source, briquettes can help reduce pressure on natural resources and limit environmentally damaging practices linked to fuel consumption. At the same time, the development of a local industry can generate employment, stimulate small businesses and create a more resilient economic base in one of Sindh&#39;s most underdeveloped regions.

Thar&#39;s development story is still being written. The choice is clear: continue extracting resources for distant consumption, or build local industries that allow communities to share in the wealth beneath their land. Coal briquettes may seem like a modest intervention, but their impact could be far-reaching. It is time to ensure that Thar&#39;s coal does more than generate electricity - it must generate opportunity, dignity and ownership for its people.]]>
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			<title>The urge to judge: when religion becomes a checklist</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600929/the-urge-to-judge-when-religion-becomes-a-checklist</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600929/the-urge-to-judge-when-religion-becomes-a-checklist#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Fri, 03 Apr 26 20:11:05 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[M Zeb Khan]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2600929</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Over time, visible practices - dress, rituals, language - become shorthand for religiosity]]>
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				<![CDATA[A short video clip sparked a long conversation in our home. Two young women - both reverts to Islam - sat together, one gently teaching the other how to pray. The learner was visibly excited, though unsure and occasionally confused about the sequence. The teacher, instead of correcting harshly, kept encouraging her - celebrating each small step forward. What struck me was not just the interaction in the video, but the reaction beside me. My wife, who comes from a rural background in K-P and has had little formal education, watched with concern. &quot;Why is she not wearing hijab?&quot; she asked, almost instinctively. For her, this visible absence seemed to overshadow the learner&#39;s sincerity, eagerness and courage.

This moment, small as it may seem, captures a much larger paradox within our religious and social lives: we often judge people not by the direction they are moving in but by how closely they match a pre-defined image of what they should already be. The question is - where do these standards come from? They are rarely the product of deliberate reflection. More often, they are inherited. From childhood, we absorb what is considered &quot;normal&quot; in our families and communities. Over time, visible practices - dress, rituals, language - become shorthand for religiosity. They are easy to observe, easy to compare, and easy to enforce.

But there is a subtle shift that happens here. What begins as a practice becomes a marker of identity. And what becomes a marker of identity turns into a boundary - separating &quot;us&quot; from &quot;them&quot;, the &quot;right&quot; from the &quot;not so right&quot;. In such a framework, religion risks being reduced to a checklist. You either tick the boxes, or you don&#39;t. Yet human transformation rarely follows such neat lines. Faith is not an instant state but a gradual unfolding. It moves through stages - curiosity, doubt, learning, struggle, and eventually, internalisation. To expect someone at the beginning of this journey to display the outcomes of its later stages is not just unrealistic - it is fundamentally unjust.

This is where the prophetic model offers a quiet but powerful contrast. Early Muslims were not transformed overnight. The Quranic message itself was revealed gradually, allowing beliefs to take root before practices were fully imposed. The focus was not merely on outward conformity but on inward conviction. Contrast this with our contemporary tendency to prioritise form over essence. We often look for immediate alignment with visible standards, forgetting that such alignment, when detached from inner transformation, can produce little more than superficial compliance - or worse, quiet resentment.

Why, then, is it so difficult for us to move away from these rigid standards? Part of the answer lies in psychology. Clear standards provide a sense of certainty in an otherwise complex world. They allow us to categorise quickly and to make sense of others without engaging deeply with their stories. Challenging these standards is not merely an intellectual exercise - it can feel like destabilising one&#39;s own moral universe. There is also an emotional dimension. The standards we uphold are often tied to our own struggles, sacrifices and contexts - not those of others!

But perhaps the deeper issue is this: we have become more comfortable judging outcomes than understanding processes. It is far easier to comment on what is visible than to appreciate what is unfolding beneath the surface. A missing hijab is immediately noticeable; a growing conviction is not. A flawed prayer is easy to critique; a sincere effort to learn is harder to measure. The video I watched that day offered a different lens. The teacher did not impose a finished ideal on her student. She met her where she was. She recognised that progress, however imperfect, is still progress.

Perhaps that is what we need to recover. Not a lowering of standards but a rethinking of how and when they are applied. Not an abandonment of practices, but a deeper appreciation of the journeys that lead to them. Because in the end, the question is not whether people meet our standards. It is whether we understand people in their socio-cultural contexts.]]>
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			<title>Iran - boots on the ground</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600570/iran-boots-on-the-ground</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600570/iran-boots-on-the-ground#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 26 19:12:55 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Inam Ul Haque]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2600570</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Escalation risks widen as Iran holds leverage over global oil routes]]>
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				<![CDATA[In a jumbled effort to obtain an off-ramp, the US is claiming to have changed the regime in Iran through sustained assassinations of Tehran&#39;s top political and military leadership. However, the &#39;regime change&#39; as a stated war objective, as &#39;claimed&#39;, is not enough to inject behavioural change in Tehran, given Iran&#39;s tenacity, tit-for-tat military responses and its holding of the international economy hostage by Hormuz blockage, in this unjust war, imposed on it. The other war objectives (stated and implied) i.e. Iran&#39;s de-nuclearisation, de-missilefication, military surrender, opening Hormuz and re-instilling the Arab confidence in the US-led security architecture, are not possible without boots on the ground.

Although Israel would want to settle the Irani question for good, President&#39;s Trump plans to exit Iran in coming weeks. And there are signs that Netanyahu, fearing Trump&#39;s loss of interest, has scaled back IDF war objectives to &#39;degradation&#39; of Irani military capability, under Israeli doctrine of &#39;mowing the grass&#39; that does not rule out revisits, once the grass grows again. The US seems to be on board.

Iran&#39;s unwise conflagration of the conflict by targeting civilian infrastructure in the Gulf, in Saudi Arabia and T&uuml;rkiye has also cemented the notion in the ME, Asia and West Plus that a desperate Irani regime armed with dangerous hypersonic missiles, doubling down to acquire nuclear capability, and able to choke the world&#39;s lifeline in Hormuz, needs serious attention and handling.

The IRGC (Pasdaran)&#39;s strategy of expanding the conflict to raise the cost for the US and indeed the entire world has worked thus far but it will backfire. Its consequences for post-war Iran and her relations with the Sunni Gulf, the wider ME, Asia and the West Plus would be grave. Iran has suffered extensive military-economic degradation, causing communication problems among leadership, impeding coherent and timely responses to negotiators. Its decentralisation helps militarily but obstructs unified political responses.

Military rationale &ndash; when seen in the backdrop of mayhem in the oil and energy markets, interruptions in the global supply chains causing rise in the food prices and Iran&#39;s reckless strikes on Arab neighbours &ndash; makes ground offensive a real possibility, if the war drags on. Despite the anti-war noise, powerful stakeholders around the world would want to see Iran defanged, for good. The decider, however, would be the military outcome of the war, especially the &#39;assessed&#39; neutralisation of Iran&#39;s missile capability and Hormuz opening.

Depending upon the emerging intelligence from Iran regarding war damages (Irani Red Crescent announced on March 23 that over 81,000 civilian buildings across Iran have been hit): Iran&#39;s residual staying power; changes in the Irani leadership and a host of other factors, the Coalition under Israeli/Jewish prodding may opt for ground offensive, if Iran does not relent and the war continues.

The duration of the war is important. Coalition needs a quick victory as US opinion polls (March 5) are solidly (59%) anti-war. The first 100 hours of combat costed the US a whopping $3.7 billion. Israeli general elections this year and mid-term elections in the US this November compel the Coalition to culminate the war quickly and on positive/victorious note. And that, militarily, seems less likely before a quick and decisive ground war. Other possible scenarios include a deal consequent to Pakistan-led interlocution, Iran&#39;s capitulation due to economic, military and demographic degradation, regime change in Israel or Washington, or some other unexpected &#39;butterfly event&#39;.

Considering the five weeks of combat, the Coalition&#39;s urgent objectives now include safe shipping through Hormuz and protection of US allies in the Gulf. To this end, the likely geo-strategic maneuver, after America urged European/other countries including China, to protect their own shipping through Hormuz, is envisaged as follows. First, in a massive operation to &#39;shaping the environment&#39;, the Coalition neglecting Gulf security either willfully or due to inability (likely): a) allows Tehran&#39;s to continue raising the cost of war, and suck in the GCC/KSA to respond to Irani strikes; b) allows oil prices to further spike due to rising risk, fare and insurance costs; and c) allows economic, military and societal upheaval in the ME and beyond. Secondly, once the environment is sufficiently &#39;shaped&#39;, the Coalition launches ground offensive, with or without UN authorisation. Thereafter, it either assembles NATO and other nations for an Afghanistan-style invasion; or does it alone (more likely) in different form and format.

Military geography renders Iran a natural fortress, ringed by rugged mountains along its borders, vast deserts in the interior and strategic maritime chokepoints. Zagros Mountains circle 1,600 km along Iraq and Turkey in the West/Southwest, down to the Strait of Hormuz, acting as a buffer. Its jagged peaks and narrow passes channelise mechanised forces into predictable corridors vulnerable to ambushes. Alborz Mountain range in the North protects Iran&#39;s Caspian Sea coast. It shields capital Tehran, providing high-altitude terrain for positional defensive. These mountains securely hide, disperse and protect Iran&#39;s military assets including nuclear infrastructure in expansive tunnel networks and underground facilities.

On the interior, the &#39;Great Salt Deserts&#39; of Dasht-e Kavir and Dasht-e Lut, the hottest places on Earth, are formidable logistical obstacles for any invasion from the east. Invasion from Southwest (Iraq) through Khuzestan Plain was attempted during Iran-Iraq War (1980-88). In sum, geography endows Iran with significant strategic depth, making full-scale conventional ground invasion logistically difficult, if not impossible. Past the outlying mountain barriers, the invader faces less ground friction but more demographic resilience. The spectre of urban warfare in Iran&#39;s sprawling cities, against Irani forces fighting for a just cause, infused with the will-to-fight, is daunting, if Pasdaran remains operationally viable, and Artesh (Army) survives the air-offensive.

The sheer size of the Iranian Plateau, roughly four times Iraq, ensures Iran&#39;s survivability. And even relentless air offensive alone cannot eliminate Iran&#39;s military capabilities. Likewise, invasion of the entire country poses significant political and military challenges. So, capturing and holding geo-strategically important terrain in and around the Strait of Hormuz emerges as preferred and less costly option. Capturing Kharq Island &ndash; containing Iran&#39;s oil and gas export terminals &ndash; remains the most likely and lucrative objective. For that American troops are in place for posturing and attempt, if negotiations fail.]]>
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			<title>A strategic neglect</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600571/a-strategic-neglect</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600571/a-strategic-neglect#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 26 19:12:55 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Durdana Najam]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2600571</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Critical minerals shift global power, placing Pakistan at a strategic crossroads]]>
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				<![CDATA[The global contest for power is being redefined, not by oil, nor by traditional trade routes, but by control over critical minerals. Copper, lithium and rare earth elements now underpin everything from electric vehicles and renewable energy systems to advanced defence technologies. These are not just economic inputs; they are strategic assets. In the emerging order, access to these resources determines technological leadership, industrial resilience and military capability.

This is where China has built a decisive edge. Over the past two decades, Beijing has secured dominance not only in mining but, more importantly, in processing and refining. Today, a significant portion of the world&#39;s critical minerals passes through Chinese-controlled supply chains.

The US response has been to push for &quot;supply chain diversification&quot;. The logic is clear: reduce reliance on China by developing alternative sources and routes. Yet, while this strategy is frequently articulated, its execution remains uneven. The search for alternatives often overlooks regions that are not only resource-rich but also geographically central to emerging trade networks.

Pakistan is one such case. From a mineral perspective, Pakistan&#39;s relevance begins with Reko Diq, one of the largest undeveloped copper and gold deposits in the world. At a time when global copper demand is expected to surge, driven by electrification and the green transition, such reserves are not peripheral; they are central to the future supply equation.

But Pakistan&#39;s importance cannot be understood through minerals alone. Its geographic position elevates its strategic value. Sitting at the intersection of South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East, Pakistan offers a rare combination: resource potential and connectivity. It provides the most direct access to the Arabian Sea for landlocked Central Asian states and serves as a natural corridor linking inland resource zones to global markets.

In supply chain terms, this dual role, as both source and transit route is difficult to replicate.

This is precisely why China has moved decisively to anchor its presence in Pakistan. Through CPEC, Beijing has invested in infrastructure, ports and connectivity networks that integrate Pakistan into its broader BRI. Gwadar port, in particular, is envisioned not merely as a commercial hub but as a strategic outlet, linking western China and potentially Central Asia to maritime trade routes.

For China, Pakistan is not an isolated investment. It is part of a larger architecture designed to secure long-term access to resources, diversify transport routes and reduce vulnerability to chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca.

The US, by contrast, has approached Pakistan with caution. This caution is often framed in terms of regional instability, but the strategic consequence is more significant: it has created space for China to consolidate its position with minimal competition. While Washington seeks to counter Beijing&#39;s dominance in mineral supply chains, its limited engagement in countries like Pakistan weakens its own diversification strategy.

This is not simply a missed opportunity; it is a structural inconsistency.

If supply chain resilience is a strategic priority, then engagement cannot be confined to low-risk environments alone. Critical minerals are often located in complex regions, and the infrastructure required to move them is inherently geopolitical. Avoiding such spaces does not eliminate risk; it redistributes advantage.

Pakistan&#39;s location further complicates this equation in ways that are often underappreciated in Western strategic thinking.

It sits at the convergence point of multiple regional dynamics: Central Asia&#39;s resource potential, the Middle East&#39;s energy corridors and South Asia&#39;s economic markets. Any serious attempt to build alternative supply routes, whether for minerals, energy or trade, inevitably intersects with Pakistan&#39;s geography.

Moreover, as global supply chains evolve, redundancy and diversification will depend not only on where resources are extracted, but also on how they are transported. Overland corridors linking Central Asia to warm-water ports are increasingly important, particularly in a context where maritime routes face both congestion and geopolitical risk. Pakistan offers one of the most direct and scalable pathways in this regard.

This makes its role less optional than often assumed.

At the same time, regional competition has intensified around these very advantages. India&#39;s opposition to CPEC reflects broader concerns about shifting connectivity patterns and strategic encirclement. Similarly, the expansion of Chinese influence through infrastructure and port development has raised alarms in Washington and among its allies. Pakistan, therefore, is not merely a participant in this evolving landscape, it is a central arena where competing visions of regional order are playing out.

The implications extend beyond bilateral rivalries.

For the US, integrating Pakistan into a broader mineral and connectivity framework would align directly with its stated goals: reducing dependence on China, expanding access to Central Asian markets and supporting alternative trade corridors. Yet, this requires a shift from a reactive to a proactive approach, one that recognises geography as a strategic asset rather than a complication.

China has already internalised this logic. Its investments in Pakistan are not short-term calculations; they are part of a long-term positioning strategy. By embedding itself within Pakistan&#39;s infrastructure and connectivity networks, Beijing is effectively shaping the routes through which future supply chains will operate.

The longer this dynamic continues unchallenged, the more difficult it becomes to rebalance.

This is why Pakistan&#39;s relevance in the global mineral economy cannot be treated as incidental. It is not just another resource holder; it is a geographic pivot. Its mineral reserves, when combined with its location, create a strategic proposition that directly intersects with great-power competition.

The current trajectory, however, suggests a widening gap. China is consolidating, the US is recalibrating and Pakistan remains under-leveraged in Western strategy despite its obvious advantages.

In this context, the real question is not whether Pakistan matters, it clearly does. The question is whether global powers, particularly the US, are willing to align their strategies with this reality. Because in a world where minerals define power, geography determines access. And in that equation, Pakistan sits at a point that is too critical to ignore, yet too important to approach with hesitation.]]>
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			<title>Bannu attack</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600927/bannu-attack</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600927/bannu-attack#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Fri, 03 Apr 26 20:11:05 +0500</pubDate>
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				<![CDATA[editorial]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2600927</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Bannu's mayhem came a day after peace talks were held in Urumqi with Afghan authorities under Chinese mediation]]>
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				<![CDATA[A devastating suicide attack on a police station in Bannu town of K-P simply reminds us that the terror nexus is intact. It also comes as a reality check that all efforts to exterminate it through the use of force, as well as a dialogue, have ended half-heartedly.

These unscrupulous elements have an agenda to nurse, and are surely associated with geopolitical crosscurrents of the day. The car bomb blast that killed four members of a family, a total of 13 civilians and a policeman, should be read in a series of attacks as the fragile district has been at the eye of the storm.

While Bannu sits at the crossroads of North Waziristan, Lakki Marwat and Karak, it has been a theatre of terrorist activities with the merchants of death making their way in and out via the western frontier. The fact that the Domel Police Station was hit so badly that it stands demolished beyond recognition hints at a mega-plot to terrorise the residents, weaken the civil society&#39;s resolve to fight terrorism, and derail the law-enforcement from its inviolable task of going after these faceless people.

Bannu&#39;s mayhem has come just a day after peace talks were held in Urumqi with Afghan authorities under the Chinese mediation. This indicates that Kabul has little or no control over these elements. It is also a foregone conclusion that all terrorist activities emanate from across the border in Afghanistan, and the evil acts are implemented inside Pakistan by the terrorists&#39; abettors.

TTP, BLA, Majeed Brigade, Al Qaeda remnants and other religio-political elements enjoy patronage from the Afghan government, which uses them as tools to foment death and destruction in Pakistan. This is where the problem becomes complex, and Pakistan&#39;s sincerity to have a level-playing field with its western neighbour and talk out the irritants is taken for granted, and abused to the core. That all leaves Pakistan with no option but to exhibit zero tolerance for all those operating in the shadows and benefiting from relaxations based on ethno-lingual considerations.]]>
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			<title>Landmines and borderlands</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600928/landmines-and-borderlands</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600928/landmines-and-borderlands#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Fri, 03 Apr 26 20:11:05 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[editorial]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2600928</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[NGOs have estimated over 5,000 civilian deaths due to landmines in the tribal areas]]>
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				<![CDATA[The world observes the International Day for Mine Awareness and Assistance in Mine Action on April 4, i.e. today. This year&#39;s theme &ndash; Invest in Peace; Invest in Mine Action &ndash; draws attention to the unfortunate reality that lasting peace cannot take root in lands seeded with explosives. Globally, a person is killed or injured by a landmine every hour, according to the UN.

Closer to home, while Pakistan is not among the worst-affected countries, we have still seen a disproportionate amount of human suffering due to landmine use by all sides in every conflict. NGOs have estimated over 5,000 civilian deaths due to landmines in the tribal areas, with several incidents reported in the last year. It is also worth noting that mines cause losses to livestock as well.

And while laying mines is relatively quick and inexpensive, removing them is painstaking, costly and often dangerous. Last year, at least five soldiers were martyred, and over 100 were injured during efforts to clear about 114 square kilometres of land along the Afghan border, according to reports.

Demining is important not just because it protects people from being killed by these explosive devices, but also because it makes more land available for productive economic use, especially farming and grazing. In the war-ravaged and poverty-stricken border villages, this can be just the kind of boost that helps bring some semblance of normalcy to the region.

Now is as good a time as any to call on the government to invest additional resources into demining and rehabilitation work in the ex-FATA areas, Balochistan and other parts of the country. The government should also reconsider its refusal to even entertain the idea of banning landmines or curtailing their use as a border management tool. There are far safer and more efficient ways to guard our frontiers while also making use of the land.]]>
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			<title>Fuelling inflation</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600926/fuelling-inflation</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600926/fuelling-inflation#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Fri, 03 Apr 26 20:11:05 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[editorial]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2600926</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Petrol has risen by 63% in four weeks and diesel by 75%]]>
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				<![CDATA[The countrymen have been literally left stunned as the government has pushed the price of petrol to Rs458 per litre and that of high-speed diesel to Rs520 - the highest levels in Pakistan&#39;s history. Petrol has risen by 63% in four weeks and diesel by 75%. Part of the cause lies beyond Islamabad&#39;s reach as the US-Israeli strikes on Iran have led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and sent global crude to record highs.

For weeks, the government told people that there was nothing to fear, as it had secured enough oil stocks until April 15. The prime minister had personally assured the nation that supply lines were secure. Then, with no warning and no explanation, why was such a sudden and steep rise made, even though the war fallout could have been controlled if austerity had been adopted in letter and spirit!

It goes without saying that &#39;austerity&#39; is a mere slogan. Evidence is not difficult to find. Ministers continue to travel with full security escorts as though the fuel crisis applied to everyone but them. New cars continue to be purchased for top federal officials with reckless abandon. These are not the gestures of a leadership that believes its own rhetoric.

The government also had access to Rs390 billion in contingency reserves set aside last June for precisely such unforeseen shocks. Those funds were not touched. The government raided the development budget instead, failed to meet its tax targets and returned from IMF negotiations with one of the weakest staff-level agreements Pakistan has signed. If reserves were stable and the situation was under control, there was every opportunity to cut the cost of government and divert those savings downward.

The contradiction is now irreconcilable. A government that claimed normalcy had no excuse to preserve every instrument of official privilege intact. If Islamabad is serious about cushioning what is coming, it must provide relief. Austerity that spares the powerful while fuel inflation cascades through the lives of ordinary Pakistanis is not a policy.]]>
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			<title>Five-point plan: the way to go</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600566/five-point-plan-the-way-to-go</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2600566/five-point-plan-the-way-to-go#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 26 19:12:55 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[editorial]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2600566</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Beijing’s entry boosts a five-point plan aimed at ending war, restoring regional stability]]>
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				<![CDATA[As escalation is the order of the day, the five-point plan proposed by China and Pakistan could act as a deterrence in realising a peace format. The salient features of the roadmap are imbued in the desire for an earnest tranquillity by bringing the month-long war to an end.

The fact that Beijing is part of the peace initiative is of vital importance, as it could go a long way in persuading both the US and Iran to step back from the brink. The plan calls for an immediate ceasefire leading to unconditional peace talks, protection of civilians across the board under the canons of International Humanitarian Law in the warzone, and maritime security to ensure unhindered access to oil supplies to avert a price spiral and energy shocks.

The peace initiative has come close on the heels of the quadruple talks in Islamabad, wherein foreign ministers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye agreed to push the diplomatic mosaic to end the conflict. Now with the Chinese on board, the emphasis on the importance of safeguarding sovereignty, territorial integrity and security of Iran and the Gulf states is a leap forward in furthering a common denominator.

The Gulf countries and Iran have little to disagree on if serenity sets in, and that too with the realisation of bringing an end to this crisis, and enabling life to go back to normalcy. While businesses, tourism and public confidence have been widely hit across the globe, the need of the hour is to give peace a chance, and the five-point plan is on the spot in the context.

Pakistan has acted as a great interlocutor, enjoying the confidence of both Tehran and Washington. Beijing&#39;s getting on board must act as a catalyst for Washington to prevail over the Jewish state to put an end to this ill-constructed war that has played havoc with the global economy.

The upcoming summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump could act as a game-changer in resurrecting a new world order. All warring sides must endorse this five-point plan, starting with opening the Straits of Hormuz and huddling at the table to seek a permanent solution.]]>
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			<title>Modern Tech Leadership: Building Systems That Scale</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2545646/modern-tech-leadership-building-systems-that-scale</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2545646/modern-tech-leadership-building-systems-that-scale#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Tue, 13 May 25 18:54:31 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Shaukat Ali Khan]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2545646</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[The author is Advisor to the President, Aga Khan University.]]>
			</description>
			<content:encoded>
				<![CDATA[In the crucible of modern technology leadership, where AI advancements outpace human adaptation and market shifts occur in real time, a new paradigm has emerged. The most effective tech leaders no longer rely on individual brilliance alone; they architect organizational systems that transform pressure into performance.

Recent data reveals a troubling reality: 61% of tech executives report unsustainable stress levels (Harvard Business Review), while leadership fatigue costs the industry $300 billion annually in lost productivity (Deloitte). These numbers underscore a fundamental truth &mdash; the challenges of tech leadership have evolved beyond what any individual can manage through sheer willpower.

The unique pressures facing tech leaders manifest in three critical dimensions. Decision-making occurs against a backdrop of exponential data growth, with IDC reporting that global data volumes double every two years &mdash; a reality that leaves 49% of tech leaders experiencing decision paralysis (MIT Sloan). Alignment becomes increasingly fragile in distributed engineering teams, where Gallup finds only 28% of technologists feel deeply connected to their company&#39;s mission. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization documents a 35% surge in leadership burnout since 2020, particularly acute in the tech sector&rsquo;s always-on culture.

What separates thriving tech leaders from those who merely survive? The answer lies in systematic approaches to five fundamental pillars of leadership. Vision in technology organizations must be both aspirational and adaptable. McKinsey research confirms that tech companies with dynamic, clearly articulated visions grow 1.5 times faster than competitors. Microsoft&rsquo;s transformation under Satya Nadella exemplifies this principle, where reframing the company&rsquo;s mission around empowerment rather than devices catalyzed a trillion-dollar market cap surge while increasing engineering team alignment by 32% (Harvard Business Review).

Transparency serves as the operating system for modern tech organizations. In an industry where Gartner reports 70% of technical initiatives fail to meet objectives, Gallup data shows that teams with transparent leaders demonstrate 3.5 times higher engagement. This principle manifests in radical openness &mdash; from GitLab&rsquo;s 6,000-page public handbook to Datadog&rsquo;s transparent incident postmortems &mdash; practices that Aberdeen Group links to 47% higher shareholder returns in tech companies.

The velocity of technological change demands unprecedented decisiveness. Stanford research indicates that hesitation costs tech firms 30% in lost innovation speed, while Bain &amp; Company data reveals that leaders who make critical decisions within 48 hours of receiving data drive 40% faster growth. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang&rsquo;s 2006 bet on CUDA architecture, made against prevailing wisdom, demonstrates how such decisive leadership builds enduring competitive advantage in the AI era.

Resilience in tech leadership requires more than personal fortitude &mdash; it demands institutionalized systems for recovery. The Journal of Applied Psychology documents that resilient tech leaders drive 25% more innovation output, with MIT research showing 82% attribute their success to structured problem-solving frameworks rather than individual heroics. Apple&rsquo;s resurgence under Steve Jobs emerged not from charismatic leadership alone, but from implementing ruthless product prioritization systems that transformed a billion-dollar loss into a $350 billion valuation.

Stakeholder trust functions as technical debt for tech leaders &mdash; it compounds quietly but determines long-term viability. PwC&rsquo;s CEO Survey finds 85% of tech leaders directly link trust to valuation, a connection exemplified by AMD&rsquo;s Lisa Su, who rebuilt investor confidence through transparent technology roadmaps after near collapse. Edelman data confirms that tech companies maintaining high stakeholder trust achieve 2.5 times greater revenue growth during market fluctuations.

The most forward-thinking tech leaders recognize that sustainable success emerges from systems rather than individual brilliance. Harvard research demonstrates that structured decision frameworks reduce deliberation time by 50% &mdash; critical when AI models can obsolete strategies overnight. McKinsey findings show that teams with clear systems adapt 60% faster to disruptions like API deprecations or supply chain shocks. Even failures become accelerants when properly analysed. Stanford studies reveal that tech organizations conducting rigorous postmortems improve 30% faster after setbacks.

This new leadership calculus represents a fundamental shift in how tech organizations scale. The most effective leaders don&rsquo;t simply make better decisions &mdash; they build better decision-making systems. They don&rsquo;t just communicate; they engineer transparency into their organizational DNA. They recognize that in an era of continuous deployment and real-time market shifts, sustainable leadership comes not from being the smartest engineer in the room, but from creating environments where every engineer can perform at their best. As artificial intelligence reshapes the technological landscape, this systematic approach to leadership may prove to be the ultimate competitive advantage.

The data leaves little room for debate &mdash; the future belongs to tech leaders who architect organizations as thoughtfully as they design systems. In doing so, they transform the overwhelming complexity of modern technology leadership from a crisis to be managed into a competitive edge to be leveraged. The organizations that embrace this paradigm won&rsquo;t just survive the coming waves of disruption &mdash; they&rsquo;ll define them.]]>
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			<title>Hurdles in materialization of GCC’s economic ventures in Pakistan</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2517229/hurdles-in-materialization-of-gccs-economic-ventures-in-pakistan</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2517229/hurdles-in-materialization-of-gccs-economic-ventures-in-pakistan#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Fri, 20 Dec 24 05:55:06 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Syed Ahmed Ali]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2517229</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Pakistan must boost economic productivity to enhance trade ties with GCC countries and ensure sustainable growth.]]>
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				<![CDATA[The organization of the Gulf Cooperation Council was formed in 1981 which consists of six states: Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. The Gulf region is one of the most resource-rich areas namely crude oil and gas. In recent years the GCC countries have reduced their dependency on energy trade and promoted economic diversification. To pursue their economic diversification initiative, GCC countries have engaged in cooperation with other regions such as South Asia, which offers key resources and technical expertise. Pakistan being a member state of the South Asian region, stands at the crossroads to either connect itself with external regions such as the Middle East or risk economic isolation.

Huma Yusuf in an article titled &ldquo;Wide Gulf&rdquo; analyzed the GCC approach to the South Asian region, which seems to develop economic relations with India while maintaining military cooperation with Pakistan on specific security issues alongside occasional economic packages to aid Pakistan&rsquo;s ailing economy. Pakistan&rsquo;s GCC policy prioritizes political and security issues over developing economic relations. As noted by Shashank Joshi, Pakistan&rsquo;s relations with Arab states seem to be military-centric. As a consequence, Pakistan&#39;s economy suffers from a lack of a conducive environment for economic productivity and regional integration.

Pakistan&#39;s economic cooperation with GCC states while still in its infancy does touch some important sectors which need to be explored. The most important sector between Pakistan and the GCC economic relations is the energy trade. In July 2023, Saudi Arabia announced that it would invest 10 billion dollars in Gwadar, Balochistan to construct an oil refinery, which would help with GCC energy exports in the South Asian region. In the same year, the UAE signed a memorandum (MoU) for the possibility of developing renewable energy in Pakistan. In 2016 Qatar became a major supplier of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to Pakistan through its LNG terminal agreement which was worth 15 billion dollars for a 15-year supply.

Apart from helping the energy sector, the GCC has also helped develop the Infrastructure of Pakistan, particularly in Azad Jammu and Kashmir. On the 22nd of October 2022, Saudi Arabia agreed to fund infrastructure projects in Neelum Valley and Muzaffarabad worth 30 billion rupees as a part of its Saudi Fund for Development (SFD). The SFD is a Saudi government assistance program that helps provide financial assistance to developing countries. Apart from providing financial aid to governmental projects, the GCC is a major investor in the real estate business in Pakistan. In 2013 Malik Riaz of the Bahria Group and Sheikh Nahyan of the Abu Dhabi Group invested 45 billion dollars in Pakistan&rsquo;s real estate industry, where they invested 10 billion dollars in Lahore and 35 billion in Karachi.

Apart from the real estate industry, the GCC countries have made a significant impact on various sectors of Pakistan&rsquo;s economy. In 2009 the Saudi government leased 500,000 acres of agricultural land from Pakistan to grow wheat as a means to ensure Saudi food security. Apart from the agricultural industry, the GCC supports Pakistani manufacturing by importing construction materials like cement. In 2004 Pakistan received a demand for cement of about 2000 tons per week from the UAE, which was supplied by Lucky Cement, DG Khan, and Attock In the field of fertilizer production Saudi Companies like SABIC have invested in Pakistan&rsquo;s fertilizer manufacturing through National Chemical Fertilizer Company (NFC).

The investments and economic aid provided by the GCC to Pakistan are channeled through joint cooperation organizations. One such organization is the UAE-Pakistan Assistance Program (UAE-PAP) which provided 200 million dollars of economic aid to Pakistan in May 2018. The objective of this funding was to provide humanitarian assistance to the vulnerable people in Pakistan. More recently, the Saudi-Pakistan Investment Conference announced a 20 billion investment, which covered diverse areas including energy, agriculture, and the environment.

Pakistan GCC trade relations are import intensive, where Gulf investors look to attract Pakistani investment in real estate, export their energy industry, and lease agricultural lands. In 2016 the trade deficit between Pakistan and GCC countries was 1.1 billion dollars, this increased to 1.3 billion dollars in 2020. The trade relationship between GCC and Pakistan is driven by rising imports and the depreciation of the Pakistani rupee which leads to the depletion of Pakistan&rsquo;s foreign exchange reserves. This vicious cycle of rising import costs and increasing foreign debt can only be mitigated through boosting economic productivity which is essential to have a long-lasting sustainable trade relationship with the GCC.

Pakistan faces significant challenges in its governance system to boost its economic productivity. Pakistan historically has inconsistency in its policy-making owing to political instability and frequent change in governments. Pakistan lacks a shared framework of economic policies shared by all stakeholders, which often leads to disruption of the previous policies initiated by the previous government. To make matters worse Pakistan&#39;s administration system suffers from red-tapism, where bureaucratic delays and complicated forms make it difficult for potential investors to invest.

Pakistan faces an acute energy crisis, where the cost of energy makes the cost of doing business too high. This leads to industrial regression where many investors look to set up their production plants where the energy costs are low. The use of renewable energy resources such as hydroelectric power plants can help reduce the cost of energy production. Solar panel technology for localized energy production is ideal in remote areas lacking grid connectivity. Energy costs can be reduced by using localized source fuels, such as Thar coal which is a cheaper alternative than foreign imported coal.

Pakistan needs export diversification, where the government needs to encourage the growth of new industrial sectors such as IT and the pharmaceutical industry. These industries produce greater value-added products which have a greater value meaning a greater inflow of foreign currency. Pakistan can help the growth of these new industrial sectors by providing export incentives such as reducing taxes on export industries. The government can also provide technical training services to help improve labor productivity.

Through these measures, Pakistan can improve its economic productivity and increase its foreign exchange currency reserves, which is important to build a more sustainable and long-lasting trade partnership with GCC countries. Such trade relations will help Pakistan&rsquo;s economy to grow and build stronger cooperation with the Gulf region.

The writer is an analyst on Middle East and South Asia]]>
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			<title>Schrödinger’s Cat and Pakistan’s Economy: Alive, dead, or both?</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2517054/schrodingers-cat-and-pakistans-economy-alive-dead-or-both</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2517054/schrodingers-cat-and-pakistans-economy-alive-dead-or-both#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Thu, 19 Dec 24 10:18:40 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Dr Aneel Salman]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2517054</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Pakistan’s economy is in flux, showing signs of life but facing challenges that keep it uncertain.]]>
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				<![CDATA[Imagine a cat in a sealed box, both alive and dead at the same time&mdash;Schr&ouml;dinger&rsquo;s famous thought experiment in quantum mechanics. Now replace the cat with Pakistan&rsquo;s economy, and you have a paradox that would make even Erwin Schr&ouml;dinger scratch his head.

Is Pakistan&rsquo;s economy thriving, or is it a mirage of temporary improvements? Like the metaphorical box, the truth only reveals itself once we look deeper. On the surface, Pakistan&rsquo;s economy seems to be showing signs of life. Inflation, which was roaring just months ago, has started to ease, particularly in food prices.

In November 2024, inflation dropped sharply to 4.9%, down from over 30% in 2023, providing relief to households that have struggled with sky-high grocery bills.
From a broader perspective, fiscal and external accounts appear to be turning a corner. The government&rsquo;s disciplined spending has led to a primary surplus, a feat that many developing economies struggle to achieve.

The current account has posted a surplus for three consecutive months, indicating improved external balances. Foreign exchange reserves have crossed $12 billion for the first time in over two years, reaching $12.04 billion in November 2024, reducing immediate fears of default.
There&rsquo;s even talk of Pakistan re-entering the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which could bring much-needed foreign portfolio investments.

The stock market has responded with renewed enthusiasm, with the benchmark share index hitting a lifetime high following the IMF&rsquo;s approval of a $7 billion bailout deal.
Corporate Pakistan, despite the recent turmoil, is cautiously optimistic. Banks have reported soaring profits, with some of the highest returns in Asia, due to high-interest rates and increased government borrowing.

The technology sector has attracted international venture capital, signalling confidence in the country&rsquo;s young talent pool. Agricultural reforms, including better irrigation and the introduction of high-yield seeds, are starting to pay off. In the FMCG sector, multinationals are reporting growth as consumer demand begins to recover. Meanwhile, automotive assemblers and manufacturers are ramping up production after a prolonged slump.

But here&rsquo;s the twist: Schr&ouml;dinger&rsquo;s cat is still in the box. Is this economic revival genuinely sustainable, or is it a temporary high? Much of the current stability hinges on policy measures that are inherently short-term. Import restrictions and remittance inflows have propped up reserves, but what happens when those restrictions are lifted? Is the economy fundamentally stronger, or are we just seeing a Band-Aid over a deep wound?

Debt remains the elephant&mdash;or perhaps the tiger&mdash;in the room. Pakistan&rsquo;s external debt obligations are massive, requiring substantial foreign exchange outflows. Without consistent export growth or foreign direct investment (FDI), the current account surplus could quickly vanish. The energy sector, despite progress in renewable projects, still struggles with circular debt and over-reliance on imported fuels, making it vulnerable to global shocks.

And let&rsquo;s not forget the perpetual wild card: politics. Policy consistency and investor confidence often take a backseat to political turmoil. In a country where ministers change faster than seasons, long-term economic planning is easier said than done.

So, what&rsquo;s the way forward for Pakistan&rsquo;s Schr&ouml;dinger economy? To truly open the box and find a thriving economy inside, Pakistan must shift from firefighting to systemic reform. Exports need to diversify beyond textiles&mdash;IT services, for instance, hold enormous untapped potential. Investment in renewable energy and domestic resources can reduce the dependency on volatile global fuel markets.
The tax system needs a complete overhaul.

Broadening the tax base by formalizing the informal economy is crucial. Digitization of tax processes has started, but enforcement and trust-building with businesses remain key. Regional trade offers another lifeline. Strengthening trade with Afghanistan, Central Asia, and even India could open up new economic corridors and stabilize supply chains.

Pakistan must also tackle inefficiencies in state-owned enterprises, which continue to bleed the exchequer. Privatization or restructuring, though politically sensitive, could reduce fiscal drag. Finally, political and institutional stability cannot be overstated. A consistent policy framework and good governance are critical to unlocking the country&rsquo;s potential.

As of now, Pakistan&rsquo;s economy remains in a superposition&mdash;alive, dead, or somewhere in between. The current signs are hopeful, but as any physicist&mdash;or economist&mdash;would tell you, the true state only reveals itself with time, data, and bold action. Until then, Schr&ouml;dinger&rsquo;s cat, or rather Pakistan&rsquo;s economy, keeps us guessing.

&nbsp;]]>
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			<title>Breaking free from inertia</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2573191/breaking-free-from-inertia</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2573191/breaking-free-from-inertia#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Sun, 19 Oct 25 19:19:25 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Nadeem Javaid]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2573191</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[Pakistan finds itself unable to prosper]]>
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				<![CDATA[Pakistan once stood at the edge of promise - a young nation alive with ambition, industry, and the dream of joining Asia&#39;s rising tigers. But somewhere along the way, that energy dimmed. Growth lost its rhythm, and progress began to circle instead of climb. The country now finds itself caught in what economists call the Middle-Income Trap &mdash; a place where nations rise above abject poverty but fail to reach prosperity. In this zone, costs rise faster than productivity, innovation stalls, and ambition outpaces capacity. Pakistan, once a symbol of potential, risks becoming an example of inertia &mdash; not poor enough for aid, yet not strong enough to compete.

The trap captures countries that grow through low-wage manufacturing and basic exports but stumble when wages rise, and productivity fails to keep pace. Argentina, Brazil and Thailand have struggled in this space for decades. Pakistan&#39;s case is similar: an economy that moves, but no longer moves forward.

Take exports. Pakistan&#39;s total exports stood around $32 billion, barely changed in years. By contrast, Vietnam&#39;s exports crossed $354 billion, despite both economies starting at similar levels two decades ago. While Bangladesh and Vietnam diversified into electronics, garments and machinery, Pakistan remains locked into low-value textiles and primary commodities. Its inability to upgrade the export base has kept the external sector stagnant and vulnerable.

Human capital tells a similar story. Pakistan spends barely 1.5 per cent of GDP on education - among the lowest in Asia. Millions of children remain out of school, and even university graduates often lack market-relevant skills. Without investment in people, productivity cannot grow - and without productivity, prosperity cannot follow.

Institutional fragility compounds the problem. Every few years, the cycle repeats - IMF bailouts, currency shocks and short-term fiscal fixes. Political volatility and administrative discontinuity have turned policymaking into crisis management. Investors, both domestic and foreign, hesitate in such an environment. High interest rates, arbitrary taxation and poor contract enforcement have produced what might be called a &quot;fear economy&quot; - one where capital hides instead of builds, and risk-taking gives way to risk-avoidance.

Meanwhile, the informal sector dominates. More than 70 per cent of Pakistan&#39;s workforce operates outside formal structures - underpaid, unprotected and untaxed. This keeps productivity low and deprives the state of much-needed revenue. Weak public investment in infrastructure and services then reinforces the cycle of low growth and inequality.

But the most subtle trap is psychological. A comfortable middle class has learned to live with stagnation. Malls expand, cars multiply and consumption thrives, but innovation languishes. Too many seek safety in government jobs or overseas remittances, while too few take the risks that fuel enterprise. It is this quiet acceptance of &quot;just enough&quot; that makes inertia so powerful - and so dangerous.

History, however, offers a way out. South Korea in the 1960s was poorer than Pakistan but climbed out of poverty through export discipline, industrial upgrading and massive investment in education. China transformed from low-end assembly to global technology leadership through long-term planning and institutional focus. Malaysia avoided the trap by building a diversified, knowledge-based economy anchored in policy continuity and political stability. None of these transitions happened overnight; each demanded decades of consistent reform and national purpose.

For Pakistan, breaking free from inertia requires a similar commitment - not cosmetic fixes, but foundational change.

First, invest in people. Raise education and skills spending to at least 45 per cent of GDP. Focus on digital literacy, STEM education and vocational training through public-private partnerships that connect learning with livelihoods.

Second, reform the tax system. Agriculture, real estate and retail must enter the tax net. Simplify compliance through technology and transparency, broaden the base, and reduce distortions that punish the formal sector.

Third, empower cities. Urban centres generate nearly 80 per cent of GDP yet remain fiscally suffocated. Devolving authority to local governments, simplifying business licensing, and expanding microfinance - especially for women - can unleash immense productive potential.

Fourth, separate economic governance from political turbulence. The National Economic Council should guide long-term policy insulated from election cycles, ensuring continuity and coherence.

Fifth, engage the diaspora as partners, not just remitters. Pakistan&#39;s nine million overseas citizens can drive entrepreneurship, investment and technology transfer - injecting new ideas and capital into the economy.

Finally, open markets and ensure fair competition. Decades of protectionism and rent-seeking have entrenched inefficiency. Phasing out distortive subsidies, arbitrary tariffs and discretionary powers would reward productivity and innovation rather than privilege and influence.

Breaking free from inertia is more than an economic task - it is a national awakening. It means replacing short-term fixes with long-term vision, dependency with creativity, and fear with confidence. Pakistan cannot grow by surviving; it must thrive by transforming.

The choice is simple yet profound: remain comfortable in stagnation or embrace the hard climb toward renewal. The Middle-Income Trap is not an inevitability; it&#39;s a choice: to reform or to resign to mediocrity. The real trap isn&#39;t income; it&#39;s inertia. And only courage, consistency and commitment can break it.

The next generation of Pakistanis deserves more than survival. They deserve momentum - born of bold, consistent action, and the courage to leap forward rather than limp in circles.

The writer is the Vice Chancellor of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) and Member at Planning Commission of Pakistan]]>
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			<title>Disaster, destiny and our responsibility</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2564513/disaster-destiny-and-our-responsibility</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2564513/disaster-destiny-and-our-responsibility#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Mon, 01 Sep 25 20:46:59 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[M Zeb Khan]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2564513</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[The problem in Pakistan is not belief in destiny itself, but its misinterpretation]]>
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				<![CDATA[When a tragedy strikes in Pakistan, the most common reaction is: &quot;It was God&#39;s will.&quot; This simple phrase has profound power and implications. It helps people cope with unbearable grief, cushions them from prolonged trauma, and provides a collective psychological framework in which loss is given meaning. In a society where faith is deeply woven into daily life, belief in destiny is not just theology - it is therapy.

But beneath this comfort lies a danger. By placing disasters solely in the realm of fate, we risk absolving ourselves of responsibility. Fatalism, when misapplied, can slide from a spiritual solace into a culture of complacency. Instead of asking hard questions about preventable causes, we retreat into resignation. Disasters become not moments of accountability but acts of destiny.

Consider floods. It is true that global climate change has placed Pakistan among the most vulnerable nations on the planet. These global forces are outside our immediate control. Yet, the devastation that follows each season of heavy rains is not a simple natural occurrence. It is compounded, amplified, and often manufactured by local realities.

Overpopulation has pushed communities into flood-prone areas, often along riverbanks where survival is precarious. Unplanned urban sprawl has overwhelmed fragile drainage systems. Deforestation in the north has stripped away natural barriers against floods and landslides. Poorly constructed homes collapse at the first touch of water, while weak infrastructure - roads, bridges and embankments - crumbles under pressure. Corruption and short-term politics mean that dams and canals remain mismanaged, and flood-prevention plans gather dust.

The same logic applies to other calamities. Road accidents are too easily accepted as &quot;God&#39;s will&quot;. But many stem from reckless driving, poorly enforced traffic rules, or vehicles unfit for the road. Factory fires, often deadly, are not acts of destiny but the result of absent safety standards and greed-driven shortcuts. Even terrorism, while politically complex, thrives when security lapses and governance failures create fertile ground. In each case, responsibility disappears behind the shield of fate.

Ironically, this is not what Islam teaches. The Qur&#39;an consistently calls for both reliance on God (tawakkul) and accountability for human action. &quot;Indeed, Allah does not change the condition of a people until they change what is in themselves&quot; (13:11). Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) famously advised a man to tie his camel before trusting in God&#39;s protection. The message is clear: trust in divine decree must go hand in hand with human responsibility. To rely on fate without effort is not faith - it is negligence.

The problem in Pakistan is not belief in destiny itself, but its misinterpretation. Instead of a balanced philosophy that combines spiritual acceptance with worldly responsibility, destiny has been reduced to an excuse. It allows individuals, communities and governments to evade accountability. It transforms what should be moments of collective learning into cycles of repeated tragedy.

The way forward requires a shift in mindset. Disasters must be understood not only as divine tests but as opportunities for reform. When floods strike, the question should not only be, &quot;Why us?&quot; but also, &quot;What must we change?&quot; When accidents occur, the response should not end at grief but extend to improving safety and enforcing laws. When violence erupts, society must hold accountable not only the perpetrators but also the structures that allowed it.

Pakistan cannot afford to treat destiny as a shield against responsibility. The Qur&#39;anic vision of humans as khalifa - stewards of the earth - places upon us a duty of care. This stewardship means planting trees instead of cutting them, enforcing safety standards instead of ignoring them, building resilient infrastructure instead of cheap structures, and investing in disaster preparedness rather than leaving everything to chance.

Disasters will always come. Climate change will make them more frequent, urbanisation will make them more complex, and global politics will make them more unpredictable. But whether they destroy us or strengthen us will depend less on destiny and more on the choices we make.]]>
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			<title>Gaza war - winning and losing</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2572800/gaza-war-winning-and-losing</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2572800/gaza-war-winning-and-losing#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Thu, 16 Oct 25 19:25:22 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Aneela Shahzad]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2572800</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[The truth behind global politics is often obscured by power plays and egos, leaving the innocent to suffer]]>
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				<![CDATA[The upright never defeat evil, but they pretty much expose it. But evil, when exposed, even when drenched in ignominy, raises itself from its lewd bottomness, with the power of its dishonesty and deviousness, to heights of vainglory and fanfare - so that the distance between brazen tyranny and honourable virtue is so great that it is virtually unbridgeable.

This is not new; it is a repeated history. Over 3,000 years back, when Moses brought God&#39;s message, asking the Pharaoh to stop tyranny upon his people and give them their freedom; and proved his truth with the miracle of the staff - what did Pharaoh and his chieftains do with all the miracles? Even when their consciences were telling them that Moses had brought the truth, their self-interests, their gluttony and their rapacity forced them to turn over their inners voices and unite upon the evil that ensures them their worldly luxuries.

&#39;So, they disputed, one with another, over their affair, but they kept secret their whispers. They said: These two are magicians: their object is to drive you out from your land with their magic, and to do away with your most exemplary ways. So, put together your plan, and then assemble in ranks: He wins today who gains the upper hand,&#39; (TaHa;62-64).

Three lines from the Quran give a complete anatomy of the psychology in play. If you are for the overkill, the lavish overabundance, the excess powers, you suppress your morality. You malign the righteous as criminals, terrorist and &#39;magicians&#39;. And you unite with all the powerful, resourceful elites, ensure one another of the exemplary &#39;way of life&#39; and regimes you have, and put your plans together. And then you tell each other that you just need to win the moment - meaning that if you are able to show the people that your sorcerers are abler than the two brothers, the people will willfully accept your power.

Now, 3,000 years later, imagine Pharaoh&#39;s court and his chieftains, and imagine Sharm as Sheikh! And just imagine for yourself, who is the Pharaoh, who are the chieftains, who are the ones who aggrandise their tyranny as true power, and who are the sorcerers that make the people of the world believe that peace has been brought to war-torn Gaza!

Humanity looks with bewildered eyes - on Monday there was a ceasefire. On Tuesday, Israel shot down five more Gazans. On Monday, UN Undersecretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher was excited about the humanitarian scale-up; on Tuesday, he said the organisation faced &quot;further setbacks to the implementation&quot;. On Monday, President Trump was hailed for the Gaza Plan; on Tuesday, he was threatening to disarm Hamas &quot;violently&quot;. And on Wednesday, Centcom chief Brad Cooper was calling upon Hamas to &quot;immediately suspend violence and shooting at innocent Palestinian civilians in Gaza&quot;, both in Hamas-controlled areas and behind the so-called yellow line where Israeli troops are stationed. What was the peace deal then, if there was any?

The truth is that humanity was not told anything about the deal or what had been agreed to. On the face of it, it seems that Hamas was forced to hand over its only leverage, the hostages, in return for empty promises that most of us don&#39;t believe in. Was it a deal for letting Netanyahu go scot-free from all his court cases then, and let the Israelis pretend they have won? Was it just a prop-up to satisfy Trump&#39;s ego after he lost the Nobel peace prize? Was it a move to put a quiet on the Gaza front so that a full attack on Iran could be prepared for? Or was it just a commonplace sorcery, to stupefy humanity, while the genocide goes on in full? Or, was it a game of the survival for leaders, who want legitimacy in the eyes of their people, and who don&#39;t actually want an end to wars because they thrive on conflict and enmity.

Offensive realist Mearsheimer describes an anarchic world where every state is for its own and where states transfer the responsibility to act to other states while remaining on the sidelines - it&#39;s called buck-passing. So do we see the Muslim states passing the buck over to the Arabs? And the Arabs conveniently passing the buck onto Trump, who has no concern with the lives or welfare of the Palestinians, and who is best buddies with Netanyahu? So how does all this work? Are the states of the Ummah just thinking to keep passing the buck so that they can have peace in their states and have their multi-billion projects and their luxuries, while Gaza and the West Bank burn and bleed? How long will this work?

By the way, are the &#39;innocent Palestinian civilians in Gaza&#39; that Brad Cooper mentioned Hamas was killing, not the IDF collaborators that they have prepared to wreak havoc in Gaza when they are gone? Are they not the same gangsters who have been looting the humanitarian aid at IDF&#39;s behest? If the Centcom chief wants to protect them, imagine what the calculus of peace drawn in his mind would be!

All this when the IDF forces still remain in two-thirds of Gaza; when humanitarian convoys are still not passing the check-posts; when Israeli leadership is repeating to this day that it won&#39;t have a Palestinian state; and that it is determined to destroy Hamas; and, in the words of Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, to ethnically cleanse Palestinians from Gaza. The truth is that Israel sees every war as an opportunity for expulsion of Palestinians, just like in 1948 and 1967.

And the truth is that the US will never cut Israel&#39;s aid; Israel will blame Hamas for something, backfoot on the ceasefire, and the genocide will go on. Because, Israeli perspective is not peace and political stability in the region, its perspective is Zionistic, it is maximising Jewish control, minimising Palestinian presence.

So, the question every member of human society must ask is: is this the way global politics is being run - of satisfying egos of biggity men; of putting trade over human lives; of letting the killing of 70,000 people just for the imperialist dream of an ally? Is this the exemplary &#39;way of life&#39; the leaders of our times propound? And are our votes in the ballot box stamping upon their powers?

Surely then, with our votes, genocide has won and humanity has lost.]]>
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			<title>American strategic deception</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2518072/american-strategic-deception</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2518072/american-strategic-deception#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Tue, 24 Dec 24 20:24:21 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Zamir Akram]]>
			</dc:creator>
			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tribune.com.pk/?p=2518072</guid>
			<description>
				<![CDATA[The US also maintains massive nuclear deterrence capability in comparison with which Pakistan's assets are miniscule.]]>
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				<![CDATA[Speaking at an American think-tank on 19 December, Jon Finer, the Deputy National Security Advisor in the Biden Administration, claimed that Pakistan&#39;s development of long-range missiles &quot;will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including the United States&quot;. He added that it was &quot;hard for us to see Pakistan&#39;s actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States&quot;.

This sweeping and speculative assertion coming only two days after the US imposed sanction on Pakistani entities allegedly involved in missile development could hardly be a coincidence.

This is obviously part of a well-orchestrated charade intended to deny Pakistan the capability to ensure credible deterrence against India&#39;s rapid development of its strategic arsenal including long range air, land and sea based missiles to be deployed on offshore Indian assets and nuclear powered submarines.

This blatantly discriminatory American policy behind the smoke-screen that Pakistan seeks to threaten the US itself is patently ludicrous and disingenuous. Even objective Americans would find this hard to digest. Indeed, this is strategic deception at its worst.

The US is well aware that ever since Pakistan&#39;s nuclear tests in response to India&#39;s in 1998, its strategic doctrine is focused on ensuring credible deterrence exclusively against India.

Accordingly, Pakistan&#39;s strategic capabilities are not directed against any other country except India, least of all the US. Besides, there is no rationale for Pakistan to threaten the US with which it has no dispute and where millions of Pakistanis reside.

The US also maintains a massive nuclear deterrence capability in comparison with which Pakistan&#39;s assets are miniscule. For Pakistan to attack the US would, therefore, be suicidal.

In open forum discussions on this issue over the recent past with American officials and experts, Pakistani interlocutor, myself involved, have sought clarity and rational arguments that would explain American concern. But none have been offered.

There have been vague and weak arguments that since Pakistan is China&#39;s ally, its strategic capabilities are a part of the threat from China. This begs the question as to why Pakistan, even as a Chinese ally, would jeopardise its own existence by attacking the US?

The truth is that these American allegations are a ploy and an obvious deception. The objective is to protect India&#39;s strategic interests against China. To achieve this, the US wants India to focus on China and not be distracted by competition from Pakistan.

But from Pakistan&#39;s perspective, Indian capabilities ostensibly against China can also be used against Pakistan. In fact, after the thrashing India received from China in 1962, it has no inclination whatsoever to engage in a conflict with the Chinese. But New Delhi will continue to exploit the threat from China to benefit from American hand-outs as Washington&#39;s &#39;Net Security Provider&#39;.

However, for Pakistan, the Indian military build-up presents an existential threat. India has used the American supported nuclear waiver to increase its nuclear arsenal. It has developed short, medium and long range air, land and sea based missiles. It has acquired nuclear powered and nuclear armed submarines. In 2019, India tested an anti-satellite missile (ASAT) and has developed a multi-layered Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) System, involving American Patriot, Israeli Arrow and Russian S-400 missiles.

India is also developing hypersonic missiles while inducting new and emerging technologies into its weapon systems with American assistance. At the same time, Indian strategic bases are being set up in the Indian Ocean, most notably in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and possibly in the Indian Ocean. Additionally, as a part of the US-backed Quadrilateral alliance in the Asia-Pacific, India may obtain basing facilities in the territories of its alliance parties - the US, Japan and Australia.

For Pakistan these developments present existing and potential challenges in the future for which it must be prepared to ensure credible deterrence. Pakistan has already ensured, through its full spectrum deterrence policy, deterrence at the operational, tactical and strategic levels.

It maintains credible second strike capability adequate for its needs. Its land, air and sea based Babur cruise missiles and the MIRVed Ababheel missiles provide capability to penetrate Indian BMD systems. The Shaheen 2 and 3 long range missiles cover the Indian mainland and offshore assets.

However, since deterrence is dynamic depending on changes in technologies and policies, Pakistan cannot afford to foreclose its future options. For instance, development of Indian bases with nuclear armed missiles deep in the Indian Ocean would require Pakistan to develop longer range missiles.

Similarly, Pakistan&#39;s space assets including satellites which are becoming increasingly vital for civilian and military purposes, may come to be threatened by ASATs which India has already tested.

Therefore, for effective deterrence to protect its satellites in future, Pakistan would need an ASAT capability for which long range missiles are essential. Also, to benefit from future space operations, Pakistan would need the capability to launch satellites which require developing a Space Launch Vehicle (SLV) capability. For all these reasons, Pakistan has a legitimate right to develop its long range missile/rocket programme.

If the US has legitimate concerns about Pakistan&#39;s missile development programme, even as the assertion that Pakistan would threaten the US is nonsensical, a reasonable arrangement based mutual non-attack assurances can provide a logical solution. But, since the US does not seek this option, the conclusion is inescapable that America&#39;s true motives are different and the allegations made by the likes of Jon Finer are nothing but an elaborate deception.

America&#39;s true intentions are betrayed by its discriminatory sanctions imposed on Pakistani entities as was done again a few days ago. There are more than 160 such entities that have been sanctioned since 1998 while none in India.

If Washington was truly interested in South Asian security and protecting its own national interests, it should pursue a non-discriminatory and balanced policy towards Pakistan and India. Instead, India has been given a free pass to build up its strategic capabilities while restraint is only being sought from Pakistan. History has demonstrated that discrimination has never succeeded with Pakistan.]]>
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			<title>Time to heal the wounds with Dhaka, and beyond</title>
			<link>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2518067/time-to-heal-the-wounds-with-dhaka-and-beyond</link>
			<comments>https://tribune.com.pk/story/2518067/time-to-heal-the-wounds-with-dhaka-and-beyond#comments</comments>
			<pubDate>Tue, 24 Dec 24 20:24:21 +0500</pubDate>
			<dc:creator>
				<![CDATA[Ishtiaq Ali Mehkri]]>
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			<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
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				<![CDATA[Five decades down the line as Bangladesh and Pakistan look back at the trauma, it pains.]]>
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				<![CDATA[The month of December reminds me of Fall of Dhaka in 1971, and the iconic poetry of Naseer Turabi, who in an instant heart-wrenching aura penned a poem reflecting the remorse of dismemberment of East Pakistan in all humility. To this day, the ghazal (ode) he wrote reverberates as a grim reminder of our fallacies in the national milieu, and the trust that the poet had in the truncated section of our erstwhile nationhood.

The legendary poet was felicitous as he wrote: &quot;Woh humsafar thaa magar us sey humnawai na thiKay dhoop chaaon ka aalam raha, judaai na thi&quot; (He was my companion, but with him I didn&#39;t have like-mindedness; Like the clouds and sunlight, together but as apart as can be).

Turabi went on to state the obvious with a big heart: &quot;Adaavatein theen, taghaaful thaa, ranjishein theen magar; Bicharne walay mein sab kuch thaa, be-wafaai na thi&quot; (There were feelings of animosity, indifference and anguish (between us) but; my departed lover had everything (but) hadn&#39;t had unfaithfulness).

Five decades down the line as Bangladesh and Pakistan look back at the trauma, it pains and has nothing to account for but regrets. It is, however, some great consolation that Dhaka is willing to bury the hatchet, and wants to normalise relations with Islamabad. The desire on the part of Dr Muhammad Yunus, the interim leader, to &quot;move on from 1971&quot; is statesmanship.

The new thinking, perhaps, hints at the Bengali nation having come a long way from the Bangabandhu psyche to a progressive, all-inclusive emerging society. The end of Shaikh Hasina&#39;s regime has also impacted in helping Dhaka realise that in an era of geo-economics, carrying the baggage of animosity is an undesired liability.

The plausible interactions are many. The first that needs to be done is to reorient the academia and intelligentsia, and let them brief and debrief over the checkered history in all openness. Trade, commerce and communication avenues are aplenty for a joint populace of around half a billion, with a collective GDP of more than $750 billion.

Apart from buoying trade, both the countries must work together for reviving the moribund eight-nation SAARC, which was conceptualised by Dhaka as a viable organic regional organisation in 1985. Bangladesh can prevail over India to give in its resistance to the regional bloc and help rewrite a new chapter of homogeneity on the pattern of ASEAN. As India sits fingers-crossed with the fall of its ally-dispensation in Dhaka, there can be a quid pro quo for regional amalgamation making it a win-win situation in bilateralism.

The opening up of our quondam eastern flank can unfurl lessons in pluralism, institutional building and respect for political mandate that Bengalis had cherished. Pakistan, unfortunately groped in parochialism these days, can learn a lot and work inwardly for strengthening national unity. With origins of our freedom movement and its founding fathers from Bengal, there is a lot of intellectualism that needs to be revisited, and made part of our national life.

To pick a thread from Faiz Ahmed Faiz, &quot;Kab nazar mein aaye gi be-daagh sabzay ki bahaar; Khoon ke dhabbay dhuleinge kitni barsaaton ke baad...&quot; (When will we see the unsullied green of spring? After how many monsoons will the stains of blood be washed?), it&#39;s time to take a leap forward and connect the dots with Dhaka. An apology from Pakistan - which has expressed regrets over the debacle though - is direly needed for a fresh start.

This also comes as an opportunity to touch-base on the Bihari legion and make an earnest effort to embrace them and heal the wounds of history. Indeed, this reconnecting desires some soul-searching as more than 300,000 Biharis are stranded in Bangladesh - poor souls who stood for Pakistan and paid a price in blood and misery.

If Dhaka can embrace Rohingya Muslims, what prevents Islamabad from bringing back Biharis and undoing their statelessness? Looking beyond the bitterness of 1971 demands an open head and heart, and a comprehensive leap forward is indispensable.]]>
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