It is not very often that one gets a concrete, dollars-and-cents example of how much the government’s incompetence at managing its finances costs the economy, but we may finally have one on our hands. Some exporters based in the United States and Europe have begun questioning the ability of their Pakistani customers to make payments for their imports and have begun charging higher fees from them in order to get stronger bank guarantees on their letters of credit.

In simpler terms, people are beginning to think that Pakistan is about to run out of foreign exchange reserves and so they are charging us more money for the risk of doing business with us. These people are probably not very encouraged to hear the prime minister-elect’s adviser on finance Sartaj Aziz talk about how Pakistan does not want to rush into a bailout programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as though the country can afford the luxury. IMF programmes are painful, but they only force the government to do what it should have done by itself ages ago, which is to ensure that it does not make any promises it cannot deliver on. One of the biggest of those promises — implied in the government’s conduct — is that electricity in Pakistan will be cheap and free to be stolen by those with the power to do so. Another is that the government can hire an absurdly large number of people in companies that it has no business owning in the first place.

Taken together, energy subsidies and bailouts of state-owned enterprises account for well over two-thirds of the budget deficit. That budget deficit is what causes Pakistan to have to borrow from global lenders like the IMF. And repayments of those loans inevitably place a strain on the country’s foreign exchange reserves. The government needs to get its house in order, before there is a sharp drop in the value of the rupee. That means undertaking painful measures, like going to the IMF. It will not be easy, but it needs to be done.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 26^th, 2013.

Prime minister-elect Nawaz Sharif reportedly asked for assistance from Beijing for fixing Pakistan’s energy crisis in his meeting with the Chinese Premier, Li Keqiang, last week. A reference to the civil nuclear technology sector was also made during the meeting. As an astute politician, Mr Sharif also emphasised the need for investments in Pakistan’s energy sector instead of aid during this important meeting. It has also been stated by PML-N circles that a team of experts will accompany Mr Sharif during his visit to Beijing, once he takes charge of the country, to discuss proposals, which include energy-related assistance from China.

The PML-N’s election campaign centred on the energy crisis and it promised that it would lift the nation out of  “darkness”. This promise and the current state of play worked well for the PML-N. Indeed, the power sector has played havoc with the economy, debilitating industry and rendering thousands jobless. Tackling the circular debt issue would be the short-term priority while the long-term and much neglected reforms in the energy sector would require swift, well-coordinated efforts by the new administration.

Where does China and other foreign powers stand in this crisis? The key expectation of the new government would be to obtain concessional oil supplies from Saudi Arabia that may help with the short-term alleviation of the structural issue. China can also surely help Pakistan through expertise and investment in the sector. Pakistan’s vast and largely untapped coal reserves can be utilised with Chinese assistance (a far more practicable idea than reliance on civil nuclear technology). Similarly, the ongoing, planned hydropower projects need to be expedited. But all these measures require a medium term for fruition. Political governments are handicapped by public pressure and the need for delivery in a short span of time.

Perhaps, the most challenging aspect of the energy sector crisis would be to cough up additional revenues from an over-committed budget to manage the circular debt. To achieve this, the new government has to introduce fiscal reforms at the earliest. The forthcoming budget, therefore, would highlight the PML-N’s intent as to how serious it is to reduce wasteful expenditures and overcome the culture of political expediency.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 26^th, 2013.

In a tragic incident, an explosion in a school van in Gujrat killed a teacher and 17 schoolchildren when the driver of the dual-fuel van switched from gas to petrol. The death of children aged between five and 15 years is heartbreaking and we cannot even imagine the pain their parents must be going through. Five of the children are reported to be in critical condition and have been sent to Lahore for treatment. Needless to say, every effort must be made to save their lives.

Moreover, this incident highlights the dire need to pay acute attention to safety standards, which seems to be missing in Pakistan, whether it is in the case of fires breaking out in buildings, or in this case, in the installation of gas cylinders in vehicles. The option to switch from gas to petrol is economical and may indeed enable not only the driver to make a living, but also the parents to be able to afford sending their children to school. However, notwithstanding the economics of using gas for cars, the least that can be done is that safety standards in installations be followed.

According to news reports, the driver of the bus has fled the scene. Indeed, he must be apprehended and the case investigated to the end. We have seen many other incidents, which have led to terrible loss of life because of negligence and carelessness. This state of affairs cannot be allowed to continue.

The incident also highlights the need for a good public transport system in the country, which adheres to all safety standards and provides a viable alternative to citizens. With the incoming government’s stress on infrastructure, we hope these issues are addressed and, more importantly, done in a well thought out manner that leaves no room for the kind of gross criminal negligence that was at display in this particular incident. What is needed is strict scrutiny of gas cylinders before they are installed in vehicles and routine checks after their installation. The lives of our citizens, especially children, are too precious to risk in such a manner.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 26^th, 2013.

Lee Rigby, a 25-year-old British soldier, was brutally murdered in Woolwich, south-east London. According to witnesses, a meat cleaver was used to hack at the victim. Two men — 28-year-old Michael Adebolajo and 22-year-old Michael Adebowale — were arrested. Reports indicate that both men were known to the security services prior to the attack.

While the attack in London cannot be condemned enough, it must be investigated whether it was a pre-planned terrorist attack or a case of home-grown terrorism. With home-grown terrorists willing to slaughter their fellow civilians in Western countries, this dangerous trend has now become an ugly reality. The rise of religious fundamentalism in the UK is due to many factors, one of them being lack of assimilation. The third or fourth generation Muslims in the UK are trying to grapple with complex issues of identity of which there are many facets — religion being one, especially after 9/11. Britain, in itself, is responsible for the rise of fundamentalism, as it allowed radical clerics to preach in its mosques and madrassas over the years. Young people are influenced easily, as they are alienated by society at large because of high unemployment levels and racial issues. Fundamentalist groups have identified this problem and exploited it by attempting to influence disaffected youth. The hate material spewed by the clerics went far beyond the purview of  “freedom of speech”. The July 7 bombings brought forth this fact.

British Prime Minister David Cameron said that it was not just an attack on Britain and “on the British way of life; it was also a betrayal of Islam and of the Muslim communities who give so much to our country”. Despite Cameron’s defence of Islam and Muslims, The Guardian reported that attacks on Muslims have spiked after the Woolwich attack. The government should ensure that apart from those involved in Rigby’s murder, the Muslim community is not targeted as a whole, and those attempting to do so are brought to book.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 25^th, 2013.

Terrorism appears to have become a feature in our lives that simply refuses to go away. Quetta, in the past, has repeatedly been the epicentre of such violence, and on May 23, the city saw yet another terrorist attack on security personnel when around 100kgs of explosives planted along the route of a bus carrying members of the Rapid Response Force of the Balochistan Constabulary detonated as the vehicle transported persons on duty from Qasim Lines into the main city. Thirteen were killed and at least 17 others injured. Provincial Home Secretary Akbar Durrani has admitted an intelligence failure and as a province-wide hunt begins, six arrests have been made.

According to Reuters, the Taliban have claimed responsibility for the attack. The Taliban, according to the report, say this was in retaliation for the recent arrest and killing of some of their colleagues belonging to the Swat Taliban. This comes after prime minister-elect Nawaz Sharif stressed the need for dialogue with the Taliban. The Taliban, according to reports, have responded by saying that it is too early for them to respond to such an offer. In the meantime, murder and mayhem continue, and we clearly need greater efficiency from our law-enforcing apparatus and intelligence network — though, of course, in the final analysis, even this may not be enough.

These latest attacks, of course, only compound the convoluted problems of Balochistan, which are by now so deeply entrenched in its soil that the solutions will need to be worked out at the highest policymaking levels. The task falls squarely on the shoulders of the government due to take oath in the province. Its degree of success in this will determine a lot about a province, which appears to be on the brink of falling apart, torn to shreds by violence that has come in so many different forms. Indeed, this government cannot afford to fail. It carries a huge responsibility on its shoulders and must deliver if Balochistan is to be saved and prevented from falling into a still further state of anarchy.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 25^th, 2013.

There appears to have been a change, or at least a drift, in US policy on drone strikes. Speaking on the controversial attacks by unmanned aircraft at Washington’s National Defence University, US President Barack Obama broke away to some extent on his predecessor George W Bush’s stance on drones, stating that in Yemen, Somalia and Pakistan, their use would be “limited” and they would be deployed only when the capture of a key target was impossible. He also said civilian casualties would be avoided at all costs. It may be noted that drone attacks have recently come under fierce criticism from rights groups including Amnesty International, which has said they are illegal. The drone attacks have, of course, been a key issue of political and humanitarian debate at home, figuring prominently in the recent election campaign.

President Obama’s words on more controlled use of drones are welcome, but they are simply not enough. The strikes need to be stopped completely — given the deaths of civilians they have caused and the deep sense of outrage they have given rise to. They, of course, also erode Pakistan’s sovereignty. This, too, has been an issue brought up many times at home. The damage inflicted by the drones comes in many forms. But putting emotion aside for a while, we need also to look at reality.

The truth is that had the state done a more efficient job, the drone strikes across the north may never have been necessitated. We need to consider why various key militants, including the late Baitullah Mehsud, were reached by drones, obviously on the basis of very sound intelligence, but could not be captured by our own apparatus. Other examples exist, too. Yes, the drone attacks must stop; the death and terror they bring must end. We hope President Obama will recognise this and accept that limiting strikes is not enough. But to make this more likely we must also consider our policy at home and ensure that at our own end, we are doing everything possible to remove the militants from our midst, ensuring no other force feels the need to do this for us.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 25^th, 2013.

One must laud the courage of the female officer who took a principled stance and resisted illegal appointments in the Ministry of Industries and Production. According to a report published in The Express Tribune, a grade 20 officer in the explosives department, questioned the appointment of a person embroiled in corruption cases with NAB, to a key position. She paid the price for her integrity when the caretaker minister of industries and production ordered her transfer from the department. Though the Islamabad High Court has ruled that the transfer order be reversed, the caretaker minister, abetted by the establishment secretary has refused to abide by the court’s ruling and has at present barred the officer from the ministry.

This incident highlights not just the corruption and abuse of power endemic in government departments but also illustrates how difficult it is for an honest officer to work with integrity. Caretaker ministers have a limited mandate and their job is simply to keep the country functional in the interim before elections are to be held. However, it is so common for caretaker ministers to make blatantly biased appointments and transfers in their short stint. This has led the Supreme Court into deliberating the suspension of all postings and transfers ordered by caretaker ministers.

The minister in question not only transferred the officer unfairly, but also appears to have gone beyond his jurisdiction in relocating the explosives department from Islamabad to Karachi. The impunity with which ministers take such decisions bespeaks of the low regard for law those wielding power have. The courage and honesty of individuals who resist the culture of corruption and self-service gives hope that the corruption deeply embedded in the system can one day be uprooted. Pressure must be borne on the minister to follow the court’s directives and legal action must be initiated against him for abusing his power.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 24^th, 2013.

The elections are over, with their inevitable flurry of accusations, counter-accusations and the tensions these bring. It is time to build bridges — sturdy ones which can take us to a better future and help us overcome the multiple crises we are currently facing. In this context, we need maturity and statesmanship from our top leaders, and the demonstration of this at the presidency on May 22, where the man who will soon take oath as prime minister, Mian Nawaz Sharif, met President Asif Ali Zardari at the sidelines of a luncheon hosted for the visiting Chinese premier.

Both men agreed that cooperation was vital to the country’s future, with all forces required to work together to save it from its current set of problems. President Zardari assured Mr Sharif that he would receive full support from the presidency as he set about this task. In turn, the PML-N chief assured the president that he accepted him as a constitutionally-elected head of state, and would not be seeking his resignation. There was agreement, too, to work for the Charter of Democracy signed by Mr Sharif and the late Benazir Bhutto. Key PML-N leaders later joined the meeting and Mr Sharif was invited to join the president during his meeting with the Chinese premier.

The gestures we saw and the comfortable reconciliatory tone adopted by the leaders of both parties, which have over the past years not always been on good terms, is encouraging. Indeed, we cannot manage without a genuine willingness to move along together, given that the PPP remains the dominant force in the Senate, while the president will naturally also have some role to play in matters. The meeting on May 22 hopefully indicates that we may finally have moved beyond the acrimonious politics of the 1990s, which caused so much instability and turbulence in the country. We certainly hope that this is the case so that a united effort can be forged to take the country forward without hindrance or any clash between various players who hold power within it.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 24^th, 2013.

The no-holds-barred welcome accorded to Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on his first visit to Pakistan signals just how much significance Pakistan attaches to its ties with China, a country repeatedly described through the years as amongst our closest friends. Of course, Pakistan, facing growing international isolation, desperately needs friends — and this, perhaps, is one reason why it clings so tightly to China, with elaborate phraseology much the vogue on either side.

On May 22, as Premier Li landed at the Nur Khan Airbase at Chaklala, amidst a tight security shield thrown over Islamabad, he was given a reception few foreign guests enjoy. His aircraft ushered in by fighter planes acquired by Pakistan from China, Mr Li was greeted by a delegation which included President Asif Zardari, the services chiefs, caretaker Prime Minister Mir Hazar Khan Khoso and a bevy of other VIPs. The Chinese head of government was also awarded the country’s highest civil award, the Nishan-e-Pakistan, during his visit. Over his two days in Pakistan, after visiting India, Premier Li met the president, the PM and incoming prime minister Mian Nawaz Sharif, while also signing a number of agreements. Encouragingly for Pakistan, he offered expanded trade, taking it up from the current $12 billion mark to $15 billion over the next two years. Crucially, at a time when Pakistan faces a crippling power crisis, he also offered much needed help in the energy sector.

The visit, and its outcome is then clearly to be welcomed. Right now all support is to be appreciated. But we must also keep a grip on reality and peek behind the gilded curtain hung over Sino-Pakistan ties. The fact is that Chinese investment in the country is lower than that of the Netherlands, and lags way behind that of the US, while projects handed over to it, such as Saindak in Balochistan, have not taken off. We should not go by rhetoric alone, and along with keeping our ties with Beijing intact, we must also recognise what the true situation is, so that we can most effectively devise both economic and foreign policy and take the steps needed to build a better future for Pakistan and all its people.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 24^th, 2013.

The caretaker government moved the Central Film Censor Board into the cabinet ministry but did not appoint an acting censor board chairman, leading to millions of rupees worth of losses to the film industry in just two weeks. The carelessness on the part of the caretaker government in this regard has not just affected our film industry, which is struggling to stay afloat, but the distributors as well, who cannot release new films in the cinemas.

In the last decade, we saw how our cinemas were overtaken by stage shows because of the onslaught of cable television and the deteriorating quality of Pakistani films. People started flocking to the cinemas once again when Bollywood films were allowed to screen in Pakistan. Many in the local industry were not in favour of this move but others realised that reviving the cinema culture is important for the entertainment-deprived masses and it was encouraging to see cinema-goers queuing up to see movies, even if they were foreign films.

Inadvertently, this move also helped the ratings of some local movies go up. The importance of a flourishing cinema culture should not be lost on the authorities. In fact, more entertainment avenues should be opened up. Concerts, puppet shows, cultural shows, art shows, literary festivals and other such entertainment should be provided to all and sundry with the help of the government. With the dissolution of the culture ministry after the implementation of the Eighteenth Amendment, the next government should either restore the Central Board of Film Censors (CBFC) or ensure that all provincial censor boards are functional. It is also important for the incoming government to make certain that our local film industry, which has suffered much in the past, is now encouraged rather than neglected. Many of our legends of yore are living in deprivation. The government should form a trust as a tribute to our living legends for this would help encourage new entrants to revive our film industry.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 23^rd, 2013.